Biography
David L. Smith, PhD, is Professor of Health Metrics Sciences at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. At IHME, Dr. Smith works closely with the local burden of disease team. His interests have expanded to include policy interventions to reduce all causes of mortality in children under 5. A key interest has been to develop analytical tools to compare simple and abstract compartment models to exquisitely detailed individual-based models. Those tools could be used to determine which kinds of models (or modeling processes) tend to produce the most robust policy assessments. This research supports the translation of the output of sophisticated Bayesian geostatistical analysis – particularly the estimates of spatial uncertainty – into usable advice about how, where, and when to distribute interventions.
Dr. Smith studied Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at Princeton University with Professor Simon A. Levin before moving into epidemiology and global health. Dr. Smith’s scientific research has been on the ecology, epidemiology, and evolution of infectious diseases. Dr. Smith has published extensively on the epidemiology, dynamics, and control of malaria, influenza, cholera, rabies, Staphylococcus aureus, and nosocomial pathogens; the evolution of resistance to antibiotics in nosocomial pathogens; the evolution of resistance to antimalarial drugs; malaria elimination and eradication; and the bioeconomics of infectious diseases. Dr. Smith was one of the original members of the Malaria Atlas Project, which has published evidence-based global maps of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax.
IHME was established at the University of Washington in Seattle in 2007. Its mission is to improve health through better health evidence.
GBD 2017 Lower Respiratory Infections Collaborators. Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. 30 October 2019. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30410-4.
GBD 2017 Diarrhoeal Disease Collaborators. Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. 30 October 2019. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30559-6.
Local Burden of Disease 2017 Child Mortality Collaborators. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant, and child deaths between 2000 and 2017. Nature. 16 October 2019. doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1545-0.
Reiner RC, Welgan CA, Casey DC, Troeger CE, Baumann MM, Nguyen QP, Swartz SJ, Blacker BF, Deshpande A, Mosser JF, Osgood-Zimmerman AE, Earl L, Marczak LB, Munro SB, Miller-Petrie MK, Kemp GR, Frostad J, Wiens KE, Lindstedt PA, Pigott DM, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Ross JM, Burstein R, Graetz N, Rao PC, Khalil IA, Weaver ND, Ray SE, David I, Farag T, Brady OJ, Kraemer MUG, Smith DL, Bhatt S, Weiss DJ, Gething PW, Kassebaum NJ, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, Hay SI. Identifying residual hotspots and mapping lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality in African children from 2000 to 2017. Nature Microbiology. 30 September 2019. doi:10.1038/s41564-019-0562-y.
Cooper L, Kang SY, Bisanzio D, Maxwell K, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Greenhouse B, Drakeley C, Arinaitwe E, Staedke SG, Gething PW, Eckhoff P, Reiner RC, Hay SI, Dorsey G, Kamya MR, Lindsay SW, Grenfell BT, Smith DL. Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading. Nature Communication. 2 September 2019; 10(1):1-9. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y.
Bhattacharjee NV, Schaeffer LE, Marczak LB, Ross JM, Swartz SJ, Albright J, Gardner WM, Shields C, Sligar A, Schipp MF, Pickering BV, Henry NJ, Johnson KB, Louie C, Cork MA, Steuben KM, Lazzar-Atwood A, Lu D, Kinyoki DK, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Earl L, Mosser JF, Deshpande A, Burstein R, Woyczynski LP, Wilson KF, VanderHeide JD, Wiens KE, Reiner RC, Piwoz EG, Rawat R, Sartorius B, Weaver ND, Nixon MR, Smith DL, Kassebaum NJ, Gakidou E, Lim SS, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Hay SI. Mapping exclusive breastfeeding in Africa between 2000 and 2017. Nature Medicine. 22 July 2019. doi:10.1038/s41591-019-0525-0.
Weiss DJ, Lucas TCD, Nguyen M, Nandi AK, Bisanzio D, Battle KE, Cameron E, Twohig KA, Pfeffer DA, Rozier JA, Gibson HS, Rao PC, Casey D, Bertozzi-Villa A, Collins EL, Dalrymple U, Gray N, Harris JR, Howes RE, Kang SY, Keddie Sh, May D, Rumisha S, Thorn MP, Barber R, Fullman N, Hunyh CK, Kulikoff X, Kutz MJ, Lopez AD, Mokdad AH, Naghavi M, Nguyen G, Shackelford KA, Vos T, Wang H, Smith DL, Lim SS, Murray CJL, Bhatt S, Hay SI, Gething PW. Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum, 2000–17: a spatial and temporal modelling study. The Lancet. 19 June 2019. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31097-9.
Battle KE, Lucas TCD, Nguyen M, Howes RE, Nandi AK, Twohig KA, Pfeffer DA, Cameron E, Rao PC, Casey D, Gibson HS, Rozier JA, Dalrymple U, Keddie SH, Collins EL, Harris JR, Guerra CA, Thorn MP, Bisanzio D, Fullman N, Huynh CK, Kulikoff X, Kutz MJ, Lopez AD, Mokdad AH, Naghavi M, Nguyen G, Shackelford KA, Vos T, Wang H, Lim SS, Murray CJL, Price RN, Baird JK, Smith DL, Bhatt S, Weiss DJ, Hay SI, Gething PW. Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000–17: a spatial and temporal modelling study. The Lancet. 19 June 2019. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31096-7
Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Cork MA, Sligar A, Steuben KM, Wilson KF, Provost NR, Mayala BK, VanderHeide JD, Collison ML, Hall JB, Biehl MH, Carter A, Frank T, Douwes-Schultz D, Burstein R, Casey DC, Deshpande A, Earl L, El Bcheraoui C, Farag TH, Henry NJ, Kinyoki D, Marczak LB, Nixon MR, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Pigott D, Reiner RC, Ross JM, Schaeffer LE, Smith DL, Weaver ND, Wiens KE, Eaton JW, Justman JE, Opio A, Sartorius B, Tanser F, Wabiri N, Piot P, Murray CJL, Hay SI. Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017. Nature. 15 May 2019. doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1200-9.
Kraemer MUG, Golding N, Bisanzio D, Bhatt S, Pigott DM, Ray SE, Brady OJ, Brownstein JS, Faria NR, Cummings DAT, Pybus OG, Smith DL, Tatem AJ, Hay SI, Reiner RC. Utilizing general human movement models to predict the spread of emerging infectious diseases in resource poor settings. Scientific Reports. 26 March 2019; 9(5151). doi:10.1038/s41598-019-41192-3.
Kraemer MUG, Reiner RC, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Gilbert M, Pigott DM, Yi D, Johnson K, Earl L, Marczak LB, Shirude S, Weaver ND, Bisanzio D, Perkins TA, Lai S, Lu X, Jones P, Coelho GE, Carvalho RG, Bortel WV, Marsboom C, Hendrickx G, Schaffner F, Moore CG, Nax HH, Bengtsson L, Wetter E, Tatem AJ, Brownstein JS, Smith DL, Lambrechts L, Cauchemez S, Linard C, Faria NR, Pybus OG, Scott TW, Liu Q, Yu H, Wint GRW, Hay SI, Golding N. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Nature Microbiology. 4 March 2019. doi:10.1038/s41564-019-0376-y.
GBD 2017 Typhoid and Paratyphoid Collaborators. The global burden of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. 18 Feb 2019. doi:10.1016/ S1473-3099(18)30685-6.
GBD 2017 Influenza Collaborators. Mortality, morbidity, and hospitalisations due to influenza lower respiratory tract infections, 2017: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine. 12 Dec 2018. doi:10.1016/S2213-2600(18)30496-X.
GBD 2017 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The Lancet. 8 Nov 2018;392:1789–858. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32279-7.
GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE Collaborators. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The Lancet. 8 Nov 2018;392:1859–922. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32335-3.
GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The Lancet. 8 Nov 2018;392:1923-94. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6.
Reiner RC, Graetz N, Casey, DC, Troeger C, Garcia GM, Mosser JF, Deshpande A, Swartz SJ, Ray SE, Blacker BF, Rao PC, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Burstein R, Pigott DM, Davis IM, Letourneau ID, Earl L, Ross JM, Khalil IA, Farag TH, Brady OJ, Kraemer MUG, Smith DL, Bhatt S, Weiss DJ, Gething PW, Kassebaum NJ, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, Hay SI. Variation in childhood diarrheal morbidity and mortality in Africa, 2000–2015. New England Journal of Medicine. 2018 Sept 19.
Osgood-Zimmerman A, Millear AI, Stubbs RW, Shields C, Pickering BV, Earl L, Graetz N, Kinyoki DK, Ray SE, Bhatt S, Browne AJ, Burstein R, Cameron E, Casey DC, Deshpande A, Fullman N, Gething PW, Gibson HS, Henry NJ, Herrero M, Krause LK, Letourneau ID, Levine AJ, Liu PY, Longbottom J, Mayala BK, Mosser JF, Noor AM, Pigott DM, Piwoz EG, Rao P, Rawat R, Reiner RC, Smith DL, Weiss DJ, Wiens KE, Mokdad AH, Lim SS, Murray CJL, Kassebaum NJ, Hay SI. Mapping child growth failure in Africa between 2000 and 2015. Nature. 28 Feb 2018. doi:10.1038/nature25760
Golding N, Burstein R, Longbottom J, Browne AJ, Fullman N, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Earl L, Bhatt S, Cameron E, Casey DC, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Farag TH, Flaxman AD, Fraser MS, Gething PW, Gibson HS, Graetz N, Krause LK, Kulikoff XR, Lim SS, Mappin B, Morozoff C, Reiner RC Jr, Sliger A, Smith DL, Wang H, Weiss DJ, Murray CJL, Moyes CL, Hay SI. Mapping under-5 and neonatal mortality in Africa, 2000–15: a baseline analysis for the Sustainable Development Goals. The Lancet
GBD 2016 Mortality Collaborators. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet. 14 Sept 2017: 390;1084–1150.
GBD 2016 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet. 14 Sept 2017: 390;1151–210.
GBD 2016 DALYs and HALE Collaborators. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet. 14 Sept 2017: 390;1260-344.
GBD 2016 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet. 14 Sept 2017: 390; 1211–59.
GBD 2016 Risk Factors Collaborators. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet. 14 Sept 2017: 390;1345-1422.
GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet. 12 Sept 2017: 390; 1423–59.
Wiebe A, Longbottom J, Gleave K, Shearer FM, Sinka ME, Massey NC, Cameron E, Bhatt S, Gething PW, Hemingway J, Smith DL, Coleman M, Moyes CL. Geographical Distributions of African Malaria Vector Sibling Species and Evidence for Insecticide Resistance. Malaria Journal. 20 Feb 2017; 16:85. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-017-1734-y
Katureebe A, Zinszer K, Arinaitwe E, Rek J, Kakande E, Charland K, Kigozi R, Kilama M, Nankabirwa J, Yeka A, Mawejje H, Mpimbaza A, Katamba H, Donnelly MJ, Rosenthal PJ, Drakeley C, Lindsay SW, Staedke SG, Smith DL, Greenhouse B, Kamya MR, Dorsey G. Measures of Malaria Burden after Long-Lasting Insecticidal Net Distribution and Indoor Residual Spraying at Three Sites in Uganda: A Prospective Observational Study. PLOS Medicine. 13, no. 11 8 Nov 2016; 13:11. doi: e1002167.
Gething PW, Casey DC, Weiss DJ, Bisanzio D, Bhatt S, Cameron E, Battle KE, Dalrymple U, Rozier J, Rao PC, Kutz MJ, Barber RM, Huynh C, Shackelford KA, Coates MM, Nguyen G, Fraser MS, Kulikoff R, Wang H, Naghavi M, Smith DL, Murray CJL, Hay SI, Lim SS. Mapping Plasmodium falciparum Mortality in Africa between 1990 and 2015. The New England Journal of Medicine. 2016 Oct 10. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1606701
Brady OJ, Godfray HCJ, Tatem AJ, Gething PW, Cohen JM, McKenzie FE, Perkins TA, Reiner RC, Tusting LS, Sinka ME, Moyes CL, Eckhoff PA, Scott TW, Lindsay SW, Hay SI, Smith DL. Vectorial Capacity and Vector Control: Reconsidering Sensitivity to Parameters for Malaria Elimination. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 28 Jan 2016; 110:2;107-17. https://doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trv113
Bhatt S, Weiss DJ, Mappin B, Dalrymple U, Cameron E, Bisanzio D, Smith DL, Moyes CL, Tatem AJ, Lynch M, Fergus CA, Yukich J, Bennett A, Eisele TP, Kolaczinski J, Cibulskis RE, Hay SI, Gething PW. Coverage and System Efficiencies of Insecticide-Treated Nets in Africa from 2000 to 2017. ELife. 29 Dec 2015:4:e09672. doi: 10.7554/eLife.09672
Reiner RC Jr, Le Menach A, Kunene S, Ntshalintshali N, Hsiang MS, Perkins TA, Greenhouse B, Tatem AJ, Cohen JM, Smith DL. Mapping residual transmission for malaria elimination. eLife. 29 Dec 2015;4:e09520. doi: 10.7554/eLife.09520
Bhatt S, Weiss DJ, Cameron E, Bisanzio D, Mappin B, Dalrymple U, Battle KE, Moyes CL, Henry A, Eckhoff PA, Wenger EA, Briët O, Penny MA, Smith TA, Bennett A, Yukich J, Eisele TP, Griffin JT, Fergus CA, Lynch M, Lindgren F, Cohen JM, Murray CJL, Smith DL, Hay SI, Cibulskis RE, Gething PW. The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015. Nature. 2015 Oct 8; 526:207–211. doi: 10.1038/nature15535.
Helb DA, Tetteh KKA, Felgner PL, Skinner J, Hubbard A, Arinaitwe E, Mayanja-Kizza H, Ssewanyana I, Kamya MR, Beeson JG, Tappero J, Smith DL, Crompton PD, Rosenthal PJ, Dorsey G, Drakeley CJ, Greenhouse B. Novel Serologic Biomarkers Provide Accurate Estimates of Recent Plasmodium Falciparum Exposure for Individuals and Communities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 11 Aug 2015; 112:32. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1501705112.
Pigott DM, Golding N, Mylne A, Huang Z, Henry AJ, Weiss DJ, Brady OJ, Kraemer MUG, Smith DL, Moyes CL, Bhatt S, Gething PW, Horby PW, Bogoch II, Brownstein JS, Mekaru SR, Tatem AJ, Khan K, Hay SI. Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa. eLife. 2014 Sep 8; 3:e04395. doi: 10.7554/eLife.04395.
Perkins TA, Scott TW, Le Menach A, Smith DL. Heterogeneity, Mixing, and the Spatial Scales of Mosquito-Borne Pathogen Transmission. PLOS Computational Biology. 12 Dec 2013; 10:2. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003327.
Smith DL, Cohen JM, Chiyaka C, Johnston G, Gething PW, Gosling R, Buckee CO, Laxminarayan R, Hay SI, Tatem AJ. A sticky situation: the unexpected stability of malaria elimination. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 5 Aug 2013; 368(1623): 20120145. doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0145.
Chiyaka C, Tatem AJ, Cohen JM, Gething PW, Johnston G, Gosling R, Laxminarayan R, Hay SI, Smith DL. The Stability of Malaria Elimination. Science. 22 Feb 2013; 339(6122): 909–10. doi:10.1126/science.1229509
Cohen JM, Smith DL, Cotter C, Ward A, Yamey G, Sabot OJ, Moonen B. Malaria resurgence: a systematic review and assessment of its causes. Malaria Journal. 24 Apr 2012; 11:122. doi:10.1186/1475-2875-11-122
Smith DL, Cohen JM, Moonen B, Tatem AJ, Sabot OJ, Ali A, Mugheiry SM. Solving the Sisyphean Problem of Malaria in Zanzibar. Science. 17 Jun 2011; 332(6036): 1384–5. doi:10.1126/science.1201398
The malERA Consultative Group on Modeling. A Research Agenda for Malaria Eradication: Modeling. PLoS Med. 25 Jan 2011; 8(1):e1000403. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000403
Tatem AJ, Smith DL, Gething PW, Kabaria CW, Snow RW, Hay SI. Ranking of elimination feasibility between malaria-endemic countries. The Lancet. 6 Nov 2010; 376(9752): 1579–91. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(10)61301-3
Smith DL, McKenzie FE. Statics and Dynamics of Malaria Infection in Anopheles Mosquitoes. Malaria Journal. 4 June 2004; 3:13 https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-3-13.