The projections were last updated at 8:45 p.m. Pacific, April 30, 2021. This page contains summaries of the results for 230+ locations, special analyses, explanations of the methods, and other tools to help understand our COVID-19 projections.
IHME director and lead modeler, Dr. Christopher J.L. Murray, shares insights from our latest COVID-19 model run.
Read summaries of the latest results for 230+ locations, including WHO regions, national, and sub-national locations.
We describe the statistical models used to take into account the effect of waning immunity on seroprevalence surveys.
We explain our new approach to COVID-19 modeling that relies on estimation of total mortality rather than officially reported deaths.
To project future COVID-19 trends, IHME uses the available data on vaccine efficacy, summarized here.
Find answers to frequently asked questions about our COVID-19 projections model.