The 2011 United Nations political declaration on non-communicable disease prevention put tobacco control on the post-2015 agenda, and the resulting global monitoring framework set 30% reductions in tobacco use for countries to achieve by 2025. This study aims to make projections on the basis of recent trends in order to assess whether countries can achieve the tobacco target. Using nationally representative population-based survey data on tobacco use prevalence from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control, this project involved the development of Bayesian hierarchical models and model-fitting algorithms applying DisMod-MR in order to address data and analytic challenges involved in tobacco use trend estimation and projection.


Ver Bilano is a PhD candidate in the Department of Global Health Policy of the School of International Health of the University of Tokyo. She has a background in pharmacy, public health, and biostatistics from the University of the Philippines, with her master’s research focusing on smoking-attributable burden of lung cancer and cerebrovascular disease in the Philippine setting. Results from her thesis were published in Tobacco Control (BMJ) and were provided to aid advocacy efforts for the passage of stronger Philippine tobacco control legislation. During an internship at the WHO Tobacco Free Initiative (TFI), she developed models for making tobacco-use baseline trend projections to 2040, which helped inform policymakers toward the signing of the Ashgabat Declaration. She is currently collaborating with the WHO TFI and the University of Newcastle, Australia, for the development of models for tobacco-use trend estimation and projection. She is also currently engaged in the Japan subnational burden of disease project in collaboration with IHME.