IHME’s Future Health Scenarios research examines a wide range of potential health outcomes, including life expectancy, causes of death, and alternative landscapes for health trends. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete view of these landscapes, highlighting the need for a more robust model of study from which to determine policy options and ways to improve health systems. Understanding drivers of health and potential trajectories going forward is critical to guiding long-term investments and implementing policies.
Knowing what might happen years or even decades ahead can provide decision-makers with the information they need to plan for the future. IHME has been developing baseline scenarios of past trends and relationships, which can be used to assess the impact of new technologies and policy options 25 years into the future.
These scenarios could include pandemics like the Ebola virus, the effect of conflict on population health, and rapid increases in obesity, diabetes, and high blood pressure, all of which affect health systems and budgets. With these data in hand, health systems and health care workers can be equipped to meet the needs of tomorrow.