GBD Publications

Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. This study provides a novel approach to modeling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts – and alternative future scenarios – for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories.

Neurological disorders are now the leading source of disability globally, and aging is increasing the burden of neurodegenerative disorders, including Parkinson’s disease. We aimed to determine the global burden of Parkinson’s disease between 1990 and 2016 to identify trends and to enable appropriate public health, medical, and scientific responses.

Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and etiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages.

In this report, we present a detailed analysis of how the patterns of cardiovascular diseases and major risk factors have changed across the states of India between 1990 and 2016. The burden from the leading cardiovascular diseases in India – ischemic heart disease and stroke – varies widely between the states. Their increasing prevalence and that of several major risk factors in every part of India, especially the highest increase in the prevalence of ischemic heart disease in the less-developed states, indicates the need for urgent policy and health system response appropriate for the situation in each state.

India has 18% of the global population and an increasing burden of chronic respiratory diseases. However, a systematic understanding of the distribution of chronic respiratory diseases and their trends over time is not readily available for all of the states of India. Our aim was to report the trends in the burden of chronic respiratory diseases and the heterogeneity in their distribution in all states of India between 1990 and 2016.

A systematic understanding of suicide mortality trends over time at the subnational level for India’s 1.3 billion people, 18% of the global population, is not readily available. Thus, we aimed to report time trends of suicide deaths, and the heterogeneity in its distribution between the states of India from 1990 to 2016. India’s proportional contribution to global suicide deaths is high and increasing. The suicide death rate in India is higher than expected for its Socio-demographic Index level, especially for women, with substantial variations in the magnitude and men-to-women ratio between the states. India must develop a suicide prevention strategy that takes into account these variations in order to address this major public health problem.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) mandate systematic monitoring of the health and well-being of all children to achieve optimal early childhood development. However, global epidemiological data on children with developmental disabilities are scarce. This study estimates prevalence and YLDs for epilepsy, intellectual disability, hearing loss, vision loss, autism spectrum disorder, and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder for children younger than 5 years.

Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk for all-cause mortality, and cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimizes health loss is zero.

Few data are available on the supply and consumption of nutrients at the country level. To address this data gap, we aimed to create a database that provides information on availability (i.e., supply) of 156 nutrients across 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2013.