Prognosis

Global Covid Deaths Estimated to Reach 5.3 Million by December

  • IHME projection puts the excess death toll at 12 million
  • Fatalities expected to peak in September and slowly decrease
The coffin of a person who died from the coronavirus is buried at a cemetary in Bekasi, Indonesia, on Aug. 6.Photographer: Rezas/AFP/Getty Images
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The world will see 5.3 million reported deaths and 12 million excess fatalities by December as the delta variant drives a surge in Covid-19 cases, according to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The U.S.-based institute expects deaths to peak at the beginning of September then slowly decline afterward, it said in a report published Friday. The IHME’s forecasts distinguish between officially reported Covid-19 deaths and excess deaths attributed to the illness including unreported fatalities.