Kenyans’ life expectancy drops for first time in 20 years

Life expectancy in Kenya has fallen by one year for the first time in two decades.

The decline was revealed in the world’s most comprehensive analysis of health indicators, known as the Global Burden of Disease study.

Researchers attributed the reduction to Covid-19 and its effects.

They also released new results of life expectancy at birth in all 47 counties.

The results suggest you may need to move your family to Embu county if you want a long life for your children.

The results also reveal the harsh reality of city life. Children born in Kenya’s big three cities – Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu – have considerably lower life expectancy at birth, compared to those in largely rural counties.

The best place to raise your family may be Embu, which now has Kenya’s highest life expectancy.

Children in Embu can expect to live for 67.8 years, the highest life expectancy in Kenya.

The results of the GBD study were published in the Lancet on March 11.

Authors evaluated health trends in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations to determine life expectancy and other demographic indicators.

The GBD study is produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which is based at the US University of Washington and has collaborators across the world, including in Kenya.

After Embu, Machakos has Kenya’s second highest life expectancy at birth of (67.6) years, followed by Kericho (67.4) at third position, according to the study.

At position four is Makueni (67.4) years, followed by Bungoma at (67.4), Kitui (67.3), Bomet (67.2), Uasin Gishu (67.1), Nakuru (66.6), Murang’a (66.6), Kilifi (65.7), Laikipia (66.5), Kirinyaga (65.5), Tharaka Nithi (65.4), Nandi (66.3), Elgeyo Marakwet (66.3)and Meru (65.1).

“Increasing life expectancy was generally consistent across all super-regions over the entire period, with the exception of mortality shocks in several locations, stagnation in sub-Saharan Africa during the HIV/Aids epidemic,” the Lancet report says.

Kenya’s big three cities, despite the presumed higher living standards, are not among the top 15 counties.

Life expectancy at birth in Mombasa is 64.1 years, Nairobi 63.1 and Kisumu 57.3.

In the last GBD report in 2019, Laikipia had Kenya’s highest life expectancy at 71 years and its current slide to 66 years was not explained.

Counties with the lowest life expectancy at birth in Kenya are: Homa Bay (56.4 years), Kisumu (57.2), Migori (57.5), Mandera (58.1), Tana River (59.4), Isiolo (60.1), Wajir (60.2), Turkana (60.5) and Nyamira (60.8).

The report indicates that since independence only two events have reduced Kenya’s life expectancy – HIV and Covid-19.

Kenya’s life expectancy at birth fell from 62 years in 1990 to 54 years in 2000, largely due to deaths from HIV/Aids.

Covid-19 reduced Kenya’s life expectancy at birth from 64.6 years in 2020 to 63.9 years in 2021. Globally, the average life expectancy at birth is 71·7 years, according to the study.

The decline attributed to Covid-19 was also experienced globally.

“Life expectancy declined in 84 per cent of countries and territories during this pandemic, demonstrating the devastating potential impacts of novel pathogens,” said co-first author Dr Austin Schumacher, acting assistant professor of health metrics sciences at the IHME.

“For adults worldwide, the Covid-19 pandemic has had a more profound impact than any event seen in half a century, including conflicts and natural disasters.”

Life expectancy at birth indicates the number of years a newborn would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life, according to the World Bank.

The study is titled "Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021".

A related commentary by experts from the World Health Organization and Unicef said the GBD estimates are limited by the quality of data available to the experts.

“Strengthening local and national data and statistical systems to improve data availability and quality is critical to improve health and survival for all ages,” they said in a statement also published in the Lancet.

It is titled, “Global health estimates should be more responsive to country needs.”

A statement from IHME said while the Covid-19 pandemic was devastating, killing approximately 5,000 Kenyans, it did not completely erase historic progress – life expectancy at birth rose by 17 years between 1950 (46.1 years) and 2021 (63.9 years).

Progress was also made globally.

“Our study suggests that, even after taking stock of the terrible loss of lives the world experienced due to the pandemic, we have made incredible progress over 72 years since 1950. Child mortality continued to drop globally,” said co-first author Dr Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, associate professor of health metrics sciences at IHME at the University of Washington.

 “Now, continuing to build on our successes, while preparing for the next pandemic and addressing the vast disparities in health across countries, should be our greatest focuses.”

The GBD 2021 study also assessed population trends globally.

It showed that although the rate of global population growth has plateaued and started to decline since 2017, in lower income countries — primarily in sub-Saharan Africa — rapid population growth has continued.

“Although the rate of global population growth has plateaued and started to decline since 2017, in lower income countries —primarily in sub-Saharan Africa — rapid population growth has continued,” the report said.

The analysis of population age structures over time also indicated a prominent shift towards older ages in most regions and nations.

“As older populations expand and reduced younger populations reach working-age, nations could encounter economic and social challenges requiring updated policies related to health care, retirement, reproduction, childcare, and migration,” the authors said.

Kenya’s population, estimated at 47.6 million in 2019, is projected to reach 57.8 million by 2030, according to projections released in 2023 by National Council for Population and Development.

The projections also showed persons aged 60 and older are the fastest-growing segment of the population.

Kenya’s elderly population increased from 1,943,715 in 2009 to 2,740,040 in 2019 thus representing an increase of about 41 per cent.