COVID-19 in India: New Forecast Shows Opportunity to Prevent More Than 200,000 Deaths by December 1

Without action, 13 states are projected to have over 10,000 deaths by December 1

SEATTLE (August 28, 2020) – New modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in India shows that while the disease will continue to pose a major public health threat, it may be possible to prevent more than 200,000 deaths by December 1, 2020, with widespread mask use and data-driven social distancing measures in the most affected states. The modeling, produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, suggests that there is an opportunity to further limit the toll of COVID-19 in India and highlights the critical need for people to comply with face mask use, social distancing, and other COVID-19 prevention guidelines as advised by public health authorities.

“India’s epidemic is far from over, as a large proportion of the population is still susceptible,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. “In fact, our modeling shows there is a wide range of potential outcomes, depending on the actions that governments and individuals take today, tomorrow, and into the near future. Mask-wearing and social distancing are crucial to mitigate the spread of the virus.”

India’s response to COVID-19 has produced some significant successes that highlight the opportunity to limit the pandemic’s toll in the country. In some urban areas, including Delhi, containment measures that include intensive contact tracing, widespread testing, mask-wearing, and social distancing mandates have helped reduce the spread of the virus. In addition, COVID-19 testing in India has scaled up rapidly.

In the best-case scenario in this modeling, India can expect approximately 291,145 total COVID-19 deaths by December 1, up from 60,000 in late August. This scenario assumes that face mask usage increases to near-universal (95%) levels and that six-week, state-level lockdowns are re-imposed if the daily death rate exceeds 8 per million in the state. This threshold is based on when governments worldwide have typically imposed lockdowns to stop COVID-19 transmission.

In contrast, if lockdown restrictions continue to ease up and face mask usage remains at current levels, India can expect approximately 492,380 total deaths by December 1. In this scenario, 13 states would have more than 10,000 total COVID-19 deaths by that time (see table below). Currently, only Maharashtra has crossed this threshold.

“India is at a tipping point,” Murray said. “If hospitals in those states are unable to accommodate everyone needing COVID-19 care, the result will be more deaths and greater long-term harm to state and local economies.”

 The forecasts of total COVID-19 deaths by state by December 1 are:  

	Worst-case scenario Lockdown restrictions continue to ease up and mask usage remains at current levels	Most likely scenario Mask usage remains at current levels; six-week, state-level lockdowns are re-imposed if daily death rate exceeds 8 per million population in that state	Best-case scenario Face mask usage rapidly increases to 95% starting now; six-week, state-level lockdowns are re-imposed if daily death rate exceeds 8 per million population in that state
India	492,380	445,265	291,145
Andhra Pradesh	32,586	30,179	19,685
Arunachal Pradesh	177	177	52
Assam	10,691	10,691	3,770
Bihar	6,083	6,083	2,290
Chhattisgarh	17,577	14,678	8,147
Delhi	5,717	5,717	5,145
Goa	2,422	1,333	1,129
Gujarat	5,465	5,465	4,438
Haryana	6,918	6,918	3,029
Himachal Pradesh	737	737	297
Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh	4,253	4,253	2,206
Jharkhand	11,794	11,794	5,168
Karnataka	45,109	39,598	31,001
Kerala	16,608	15,599	11,602
Madhya Pradesh	10,206	10,206	4,621
Maharashtra	110,971	91,438	85,686
Manipur	1,698	1,586	615
Meghalaya	439	439	261
Nagaland	8	8	8
Odisha	18,663	18,362	7,851
Punjab	27,953	18,773	16,404
Rajasthan	4,420	4,420	2,397
Tamil Nadu	45,553	43,770	24,592
Telangana	1,905	1,905	1,367
Tripura	5,149	3,250	2,516
Uttar Pradesh	50,631	50,631	21,524
Uttarakhand	5,887	5,289	3,288
West Bengal	42,760	41,965	22,053

 

Until there is a widely available vaccine against COVID-19, much of India’s population remains susceptible to the disease. Monitoring trends state-by-state, encouraging mask use, continuing social distancing and hygiene precautions, and using state-level or district-level lockdowns if needed can help save lives and minimize the impact of the pandemic on India’s health and economy.

IHME’s projections for India are based on an epidemiological model that includes data on cases, deaths, and antibody prevalence, as well as state-specific COVID-19 testing rates, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, population density and age structure, and pneumonia seasonality, which shows a strong correlation with the trajectory of COVID-19. 

The new projections, including additional forecasts of daily infections, are available at https://covid19.healthdata.org/india, and will be regularly updated moving forward.

Contacts: 
Indian media: Ritika Jauhari, [email protected] 
International media: [email protected]

 

About the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME is committed to transparency and makes this information widely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions on allocating resources to improve population health.