PCE Results

In this study, we sought to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prevalence and burden of depressive and anxiety disorders globally in 2020.

This study examines the presence and extent of under-reporting of police violence in US Government-run vital registration data, offers a method for correcting under-reporting in these datasets, and presents revised estimates of deaths due to police violence in the USA.

This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic.

We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

We aimed to estimate the global and regional burden due to non-optimal temperature exposure.

To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

We estimate primary healthcare (PHC) expenditure for each low-income and middle-income country between 2000 and 2017 and test which health outputs and outcomes were associated with PHC expenditure.

This research aims to provide policymakers and researchers with a single repository of available national health expenditures by healthcare functions (ie, services) and providers of such services.

Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time.

We aimed to estimate the total reductions in under-5 mortality that are associated with increased maternal and paternal education, during distinct age intervals.

This study utilizes the most recent data available to provide an updated comparison of available data sources on government spending on immunization.  

We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa.

We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use with a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products.

This study aims to estimate health care systems' value in treating major illnesses for each US state and identify system characteristics associated with value.

Per this study, uncorrectable visual acuity loss and blindness are even larger drivers of health burden in the US than was previously known.

This analysis introduces a publicly available evaluation framework for assessing the predictive validity of COVID-19 mortality forecasts.

We study the factors associated with observed trends in the in-hospital mortality rates in the United States during the first 9 months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Hearing loss has adverse effects on cognition, language development, and social well-being. We present updated estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study on the prevalence of hearing loss in 2019, as well as its associated disability. 

Over the past decades, TC incidence rates have been increasing. TC quality of care (QOC) has yet to be well understood. We aimed to assess the quality of TC care and its disparities.

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruptions to education in the United States, with a large proportion of schooling moving to online formats, which has the potential to exacerbate existing racial/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in learning. 

Here we show that comprehensive tobacco control policies—including smoking bans, health warnings, advertising bans and tobacco taxes—are effective in reducing smoking prevalence; amplified positive effects are seen when these policies are implemented simultaneously within a given country.

Mixed effects (ME) models inform a vast array of problems in the physical and social sciences, and are pervasive in meta-analysis. We consider ME models where the random effects component is linear. We then develop an efficient approach for a broad problem class that allows nonlinear measurements, priors, and constraints, and finds robust estimates in all of these cases using trimming in the associated marginal likelihood. 

In a previous study, we mapped the use of ORS treatment subnationally and found that ORS coverage increased over time, while the use of home-made alternatives or recommended home fluids (RHF) decreased, in many countries. These patterns were particularly striking within Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone.

We generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-kilometre and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographic inequality, and assessed vaccination status by geographic remoteness.

This study aimed to assess the prevalence, causes, and regional distribution of vision impairment and blindness in China in 1990 and 2019.

We present global, regional, and country data for the number of people who would benefit from rehabilitation at least once during the course of their disabling illness or injury.

We aimed to compare the results with the World Health Assembly Global Action Plan (WHA GAP) target of a 25% global reduction from 2010 to 2019 in avoidable vision impairment, defined as cataract and undercorrected refractive error.

This paper examines rates of blood usage to identify trends in transfusion practices over time and inform more efficient management.

The objective of this study is to present burden estimates of major neurological disorders in the US states by age and sex from 1990 to 2017.

The objective of this study is to analyse inequalities among Mexico’s 32 states on the health-related SDG indicators (HRSDGIs) from 1990 to 2017.

The objective of this study was to assess the relation between autocratisation—substantial decreases in democratic traits (free and fair elections, freedom of civil and political association, and freedom of expression)—and countries’ population health outcomes and progress toward universal health coverage (UHC).

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.

This study aims to analyze trends in and burden of mortality by firearms, according to age and sex, for Brazil, and the association between these deaths and indicators of possession and carrying of weapons using data from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study (GBD) 2017.

Using the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) results, this study sought to estimate mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to non-communicable diseases caused by high body mass index (BMI) in both sexes and across age categories. This study also aimed to describe the prevalence of overweight and obesity throughout the states of Brazil.

Registered causes in vital statistics classified as garbage codes (GC) are considered indicators of quality of cause-of-death data. Our aim was to describe temporal changes in this quality in Brazil, and the leading GCs according to levels assembled for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.

The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017 database permits an up-to-date evaluation of the frequency and burden of diabetes at the state level in Brazil and by type of diabetes. The objective of this report is to describe, using these updated GBD data, the current and projected future burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil, as well as its variation over time and space.

Depression is one of the major causes of disability worldwide. The objective of this study was to analyze the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD-2017) for depressive disorders in Brazil and its Federated Units (FUs) in 1990 and 2017.

Measuring the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) has been the key to verifying the evolution of health indicators worldwide. We analyse subnational GBD data for Brazil in order to monitor the performance of the Brazilian states in the last 28 years on their progress towards meeting the health-related SDGs.

The aim of this study was to estimate the mortality from all causes as a result of physical inactivity in Brazil and in Brazilian states over 28 years (1990–2017).

This systematic analysis estimated the burden of CVDs in Ethiopia using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study data. 

Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

In this Comment, we use the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic to explore some of the ways in which digital public health can transform the public health response. Through this exploration, we hope to highlight the broader potential for digital public health in making public health prevention, surveillance, and responses more effective across a wide range of challenges.

Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016.

Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts in many countries. In this study, we developed novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, migration, and population. We also assessed potential economic and geopolitical effects of future demographic shifts.

We sought to update the most widely reported estimate of 93 million children <15 years with disabilities from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Skin and subcutaneous diseases affect the health of millions of individuals in the US. Data are needed that highlight the geographic trends and variations of skin disease burden across the country to guide health care decision-making.

We conducted a descriptive epidemiological analysis of HIV/AIDS burden for the 16 SADC countries using secondary data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factor (GBD) Study.

In 2010, Saudi Arabia began a major investment and transformation programme in the health-care sector. Here we assess the impact of this investment era on mortality, health loss, risk factors, and health-care services in the country.

We present a detailed analysis of subnational trends of child mortality to inform efforts aimed at meeting the India National Health Policy (NHP) and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for child mortality.

We used spending estimates to measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG 3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG 3 indicators for which data are available.

In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic will place a load on health system resources well beyond the current capacity of hospitals in the USA and EEA to manage, especially for ICU care and ventilator use. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity.

We model the within-country distribution of years of schooling, and use this model to explore educational inequality since 1970 and to forecast progress towards the education-related 2030 SDG targets.

Updated statistics on the incidence and mortality of oesophageal cancer, and on the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the disease, can assist policy makers in allocating resources for prevention, treatment, and care of oesophageal cancer. 

In Mexico, from 1990 to 2017, mortality due to unintentional injuries has decreased, while non-fatal incident cases have increased. However, unintentional injuries continue to cause considerable mortality and morbidity, with patterns that vary by state, age, sex and year.

As part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD), degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD), and other NRVD were estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017.

We collected data on the following: (a) Key dates, which include the date of onset of disease, date of admission to hospital, date of confirmation of infection, and dates of travel. (b) Demographic information about the age and sex of patients/cases. (c) Geographic information, at the highest resolution available down to the district level. 

Haemorrhage remains the leading cause of maternal mortality in Central America. The Salud Mesoamérica Initiative aims to reduce such mortality via performance indicators. Our objective was to assess the availability and administration of oxytocin, before and after applying Salud Mesoamérica Initiative interventions in the poorest health facilities across Central America.

The stability of our global age-standardised prevalence estimates over time suggests that the epidemiology of the disease has not changed, but the estimates of all-age prevalence and YLDs, which increased between 1990 and 2017, suggest that the burden of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease is nonetheless increasing as a result of ageing and population growth.

The aim of this component of the Global Burden of Disease study was to produce estimates on prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability for oral conditions from 1990 to 2017 by sex, age, and countries.

Multidimensional care for pre‐eclampsia management increased across all facility types, countries, and severity of disease. The Salud Mesoamérica Initiative is a promising model for achieving such quality of care interventions in the era of universal health coverage.

Francophone Africa still carries a high burden of communicable and neonatal diseases, probably due to the weakness of health-care systems and services, as evidenced by the almost complete attribution of DALYs to YLLs.

We aimed to estimate the burden of disease attributable to occupational exposures at provincial levels from 1990 to 2017.

This study provides an overview of the influence of occupational risk factors on the global burden of disease as estimated by the occupational component of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 study.

This paper presents detailed analysis of the global and regional burden of chronic respiratory disease arising from occupational airborne exposures, as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study.

The burden of skin disease has increased in Canada since 1990. These results can be used to guide health policy regarding skin disease in Canada.

Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups.

Despite declining age-standardized incidence and mortality, sepsis remains a major cause of health loss worldwide and has an especially high health-related burden in sub-Saharan Africa.

Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many low- and middle-income countries remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall child growth failure prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications.

While health loss from road injuries is a major topic of global importance, there has been no recent comprehensive assessment that includes estimates for every age group, sex and country over recent years. These findings indicate that more research is needed to better understand how road injuries can be prevented.

Vietnam has been one of the fastest-growing world economies in the past decade. It is of interest to evaluate the trends in injury burden that occurred alongside Vietnam’s economic growth in the past decade.

Our objectives were to assess the prevalence and geographic distribution of AMR in Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi A infections globally, to evaluate the extent of the problem, and to facilitate the creation of geospatial maps of AMR prevalence to help targeted public health intervention.

Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health. Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017.

Mental disorders are among the leading causes of non-fatal disease burden in India. In this report, we describe the prevalence and disease burden of each mental disorder for the states of India, from 1990 to 2017.

The purpose of this article is to share a collated MERS-CoV database and extraction protocol that can be utilized in future mapping efforts for both MERS-CoV and other infectious diseases.

As part of the Bloomberg Initiative to Reduce Tobacco Use, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and the Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública of Mexico (INSP) have conducted a comprehensive assessment of tobacco control policies in Mexico’s 32 states, examining their implications for tobacco use and its associated health outcomes.

Through a comprehensive analysis of Italy's estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, we aimed to understand the patterns of health loss and response of the health care system, and offer evidence-based policy indications in light of the demographic transition and government health spending in the country.

To better inform programs and policies focused on preventing and treating LRIs, we assessed the contributions and patterns of risk factor attribution, intervention coverage, and sociodemographic development in 195 countries and territories by drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) LRI estimates.

Blood transfusions are an important resource of every health care system, with often limited supply in low-income and middle-income countries; however, the degree of unmet need for blood transfusions is often unknown.

Evaluation of pancreatic cancer burden and its global, regional, and national patterns is crucial to policymaking and better resource allocation for controlling pancreatic cancer risk factors, developing early detection methods, and providing faster and more effective treatments.

The burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is rising globally, with substantial variation in levels and trends of disease in different countries and regions. We report the prevalence, mortality, and overall burden of IBD in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017.

In recent years, China has increased its international engagement in health. In this study, we generated estimates of DAH from China from 2007 through 2017 and disaggregated those estimates by disbursing agency and health focus area.

We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate.We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.

In this report of the Commission, we synthesize existing evidence and new epidemiological and financial analyses to show that malaria eradication by 2050 is a bold but attainable goal, and a necessary one given the never-ending struggle against drug and insecticide resistance and the social and economic costs associated with a failure to eradicate.

This study describes the distribution of relative entomological risks for malaria transmission among households at multiple sites across a range of mosquito densities and transmission levels and through multiple seasons.

Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.

Our estimates provide the ability to visualize subnational exclusive breastfeeding variability and identify populations in need of additional breastfeeding support.

This report describes PCE findings from early grant implementation in Guatemala and makes recommendations for global and local stakeholders. 

In this Health Policy perspective, we examined trends in DAH and its evolution over time, with a particular focus on G20 countries; pointed to persistent and emerging challenges for discussion at the G20 Summit; and highlighted key questions for G20 leaders to address to put the future of DAH on course to meet the expansive Sustainable Development Goals.

Since 2000, the scale-up of malaria control interventions has substantially reduced morbidity and mortality caused by the disease globally, fuelling bold aims for disease elimination. High-resolution maps of P. falciparum provide a contemporary resource for informing global policy and malaria control planning, program implementation, and monitoring initiatives.

Existing WHO estimates of the prevalence of mental disorders in emergency settings are more than a decade old and do not reflect modern methods to gather existing data and derive estimates. We sought to update WHO estimates for the prevalence of mental disorders in conflict-affected settings and calculate the burden per 1,000 population. We estimated that the prevalence of mental disorders (depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia) was 22.1% (95% UI 18.8–25.7) at any point in time in the conflict-affected populations assessed.

This report presents updated findings for Singapore from the GBD 2017 study and provides a comprehensive look at the burden of diseases and injuries in Singapore across time. 

Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level.

Understanding causes and correlates of health loss among children and adolescents can identify areas of success, stagnation, and emerging threats and thereby facilitate effective improvement strategies. This study examined levels, trends, and spatiotemporal patterns of cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes from 1990 to 2017 on children and adolescents from birth through 19 years of age in 195 countries and territories.

Between 2012 and 2016, development assistance for HIV/AIDS decreased by 20.0%; domestic financing is therefore critical to sustaining the response to HIV/AIDS. To understand whether domestic resources could fill the financing gaps created by declines in development assistance, we aimed to track spending on HIV/AIDS and estimated the potential for governments to devote additional domestic funds to HIV/AIDS.

This 10th edition of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s annual Financing Global Health report provides the most up-to-date estimates of development assistance for health, domestic spending on health, health spending on two key infectious diseases – malaria and HIV/AIDS – and future scenarios of health spending.

Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity.

Podoconiosis is a type of tropical lymphoedema that causes massive swelling of the lower limbs. The disease is associated with both economic insecurity, due to long-term morbidity-related loss of productivity, and intense social stigma. Reliable and detailed data on the prevalence and distribution of podoconiosis are scarce. We aimed to fill this data gap by doing a nationwide community-based study to estimate the number of cases throughout Rwanda.

When enforced by free and fair elections, democracies are more likely than autocracies to lead to health gains for causes of mortality (e.g., cardiovascular diseases and transport injuries) that have not been heavily targeted by foreign aid and require health care delivery infrastructure. International health agencies and donors might increasingly need to consider the implications of regime type in their efforts to maximize health gains, particularly in the context of aging populations and the growing burden of non-communicable diseases.

Rapid demographic, epidemiological, and nutritional transitons have brought a pressing need to track progress in adolescent health. Here, we present country-level estimates of 12 headline indicators from the Lancet Commission on adolescent health and well-being, from 1990 to 2016.

In 2015, high rates of microcephaly were reported in Northeast Brazil following the first South American Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak. Reported microcephaly rates in other Zika-affected areas were significantly lower, suggesting alternate causes or the involvement of arboviral cofactors in exacerbating microcephaly rates. This study strengthens the evidence that congenital ZIKV infection, particularly in the first 2 trimesters of pregnancy, is associated with microcephaly and less frequently with other birth defects.

Everyone deserves a long and healthy life, but in reality, health outcomes differ across populations. We use results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017) to report patterns in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risks at the global, regional, national, and subnational level, and by sociodemographic index (SDI), from 1990 to 2017.

Efforts to quantify the global burden of enteric fever are valuable for understanding the health lost and the large-scale spatial distribution of the disease. We present the estimates of typhoid and paratyphoid fever burden from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, and the approach taken to produce them.

Antenatal care (ANC) is a means to identify high-risk pregnancies and educate women so that they might experience a healthier delivery and outcome. The present analysis examines whether ANC uptake is associated with other maternal and child health behaviors in poor mothers in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Mexico (Chiapas).

Multiple sclerosis is the most common inflammatory neurological disease in young adults. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic method of quantifying various effects of a given condition by demographic variables and geography. In this systematic analysis, we quantified the global burden of multiple sclerosis and its relationship with country development level.

Government health spending is a primary source of funding in the health sector across the world. However, in sub-Saharan Africa, only about a third of all health spending is sourced from the government. The objectives of this study are to describe the growth in government health spending, examine its determinants and explain the variation in government health spending across sub-Saharan African countries.

The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.

Although the burden of influenza is often discussed in the context of historical pandemics and the threat of future pandemics, every year a substantial burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and other respiratory conditions (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are attributable to seasonal influenza. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 is a systematic scientific effort to quantify the health loss associated with a comprehensive set of diseases and disabilities. In this article, we focus on LRTIs that can be attributed to influenza.

Air pollution is a major planetary health risk, with India estimated to have some of the worst levels globally. To inform action at subnational levels in India, we estimated the exposure to air pollution and its impact on deaths, disease burden, and life expectancy in every state of India in 2017.

Although a preventable and treatable disease, tuberculosis causes more than a million deaths each year. As countries work toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030, robust assessments of the levels and trends of the burden of tuberculosis are crucial to inform policy and program decision-making. We assessed the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis by drug resistance and HIV status for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognized as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury.

How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population’s state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years.

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind,” it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analyzed global attainment.

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

Understanding how prevalence, incidence, and mortality of motor neuron diseases change over time and by location is crucial for understanding the causes of these disorders and for health care planning. Our aim was to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for motor neuron diseases for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016.

The addition of neonatal (NN) mortality targets in the Sustainable Development Goals highlights the increased need for age-specific quantification of mortality trends, detail that is not provided by summary birth histories (SBHs). Several methods exist to indirectly estimate trends in under-5 mortality from SBHs; however, efforts to monitor mortality trends in important age groups such as the first month and first year of life have yet to utilize the vast amount of SBH data available from household surveys and censuses.

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provided comprehensive estimates of health loss globally. Decision-makers in Kenya can use GBD subnational data to target health interventions and address county-level variation in the burden of disease.

Through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) studies, headache has emerged as a major global public health concern. We aimed to use data from the GBD 2016 study to provide new estimates for prevalence and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for migraine and tension-type headache and to present the methods and results in an accessible way for clinicians and researchers of headache disorders.

Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. This study provides a novel approach to modeling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts – and alternative future scenarios – for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories.

Our aim was to describe the total disease burden in Norway in 2016, its development over the last 10 years and sex differences in the disease burden. Non-fatal health loss constitutes a large and increasing proportion of the disease burden in the Norwegian population, which will bring new challenges for the health care system.

Neurological disorders are now the leading source of disability globally, and aging is increasing the burden of neurodegenerative disorders, including Parkinson’s disease. We aimed to determine the global burden of Parkinson’s disease between 1990 and 2016 to identify trends and to enable appropriate public health, medical, and scientific responses.

Human capital is recognised as the level of education and health in a population and is considered an important determinant of economic growth. The World Bank has called for measurement and annual reporting of human capital to track and motivate investments in health and education and enhance productivity. We aim to provide a new comprehensive measure of human capital across countries globally.

Diarrheal diseases are the third leading cause of disease and death in children younger than 5 years of age in Africa and were responsible for an estimated 30 million cases of severe diarrhea and 330,000 deaths in 2015. Our findings showed concentrated areas of diarrheal disease and diarrhea-related death in countries that had a consistently high burden as well as in countries that had considerable national-level reductions in diarrhea burden.

In this report, we present a detailed analysis of how the patterns of cardiovascular diseases and major risk factors have changed across the states of India between 1990 and 2016. The burden from the leading cardiovascular diseases in India – ischemic heart disease and stroke – varies widely between the states. Their increasing prevalence and that of several major risk factors in every part of India, especially the highest increase in the prevalence of ischemic heart disease in the less-developed states, indicates the need for urgent policy and health system response appropriate for the situation in each state.

India has 18% of the global population and an increasing burden of chronic respiratory diseases. However, a systematic understanding of the distribution of chronic respiratory diseases and their trends over time is not readily available for all of the states of India. Our aim was to report the trends in the burden of chronic respiratory diseases and the heterogeneity in their distribution in all states of India between 1990 and 2016.

A systematic understanding of suicide mortality trends over time at the subnational level for India’s 1.3 billion people, 18% of the global population, is not readily available. Thus, we aimed to report time trends of suicide deaths, and the heterogeneity in its distribution between the states of India from 1990 to 2016. India’s proportional contribution to global suicide deaths is high and increasing. The suicide death rate in India is higher than expected for its Socio-demographic Index level, especially for women, with substantial variations in the magnitude and men-to-women ratio between the states. India must develop a suicide prevention strategy that takes into account these variations in order to address this major public health problem.

Over the past few decades, social and economic changes have had substantial effects on health and well-being in Russia. We aimed to use data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to evaluate trends in mortality, causes of death, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years, and associated risk factors in Russia from 1980 to 2016.

Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. This study estimated between 195,000 and 276,000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.

Rotavirus infection is the global leading cause of diarrhea-associated morbidity and mortality among children younger than 5 years. This report builds on findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2016, a cross-sectional study that measured diarrheal diseases and their etiologic agents.

This study aims to report the burden of diseases and injuries in Afghanistan between 1990 and 2016. Despite improvements in certain health indicators, our study suggests an urgent intervention to improve health status of the country. Improving health infrastructures, boosting maternal and child health (MCH), battling infectious diseases as well as chronic disease risk factor modification programs can help to decrease burden of diseases.

Following the economic crisis in Greece in 2010, the country's ongoing austerity measures include a substantial contraction of health care expenditure, with reports of subsequent negative health consequences. The findings of increases in total deaths and accelerated population aging call for specific focus from health policymakers to ensure the health care system is equipped to meet the needs of the people in Greece.

This study used the estimates of the GBD to summarise the state of health in Spain in 2016 and report trends in mortality and morbidity from 1990 to 2016.

Improving childhood vaccine coverage is a priority for global health, but challenging in low and middle-income countries. This study provides evidence that determinants should be approached in the context of relevant outcomes, and evidence of specific determinants that could have the greatest impact if targeted.

This study underscores that, with adequate resources and technical expertise, collecting data for quality indicators at scale in low- and middle-income countries is possible. 

The protozoan Cryptosporidium is a leading cause of diarrhea morbidity and mortality in children younger than 5 years. Our findings show that the substantial short-term burden of diarrhea from Cryptosporidium infection on childhood growth and well-being is an underestimate of the true burden.

Animal bites and stings contribute significantly to mortality in certain parts of the world. India accounts for the highest number of snakebites and related mortality globally. We report on mortality due to bite or sting of a venomous animal from a population-based study in the Indian state of Bihar which estimated the causes of death using verbal autopsy.

Despite the long-standing recognition of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) across many settings, there is surprisingly poor information about its geographical distribution over time and trends in its population prevalence and incidence. The inclusion of mortality and morbidity data related to drug-resistant infections into the annual Global Burden of Disease Study should help fill this policy void.

Quality of obstetric care may not be constant within clinics and hospitals. Night shifts and weekends experience understaffing and other organizational hurdles in comparison with the weekday morning shifts, and this may influence the risk of maternal deaths. This study analyzed the hourly variation of maternal mortality within Mexican health institutions.

A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016.

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a plasma cell neoplasm with substantial morbidity and mortality. A comprehensive description of the global burden of MM is needed to help direct health policy, resource allocation, research, and patient care.

The Prospective Country Evaluation (PCE) is designed to evaluate how Global Fund policies and processes play out in country in real time and provide high quality, actionable, timely information to national program implementers and Global Fund policymakers. This report describes the PCE establishment in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), progress to-date, and highlights early findings, with a focus on the funding request and grant-making stages. Available in French.

We perform a standard procedure for analyzing the predictive accuracy of verbal autopsy classification methods using the same data and the publicly available implementation of the algorithm released by the authors. We extend the original analysis to include children and neonates, instead of only adults, and test accuracy using different sets of predictors, including the set used in the original paper and a set that matches the released software.

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) requires health financing systems that provide prepaid pooled resources for key health services without placing undue financial stress on households. Understanding current and future trajectories of health financing is vital for progress toward UHC. We used historical health financing data for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015 to estimate future scenarios of health spending and pooled health spending through to 2040.

Results-based aid (RBA) is increasingly used to incentivize action in health. In Mesoamerica, the region consisting of southern Mexico and Central America, the RBA project known as the Salud Mesoamérica Initiative (SMI) was designed to target disparities in maternal and child health, focusing on the poorest 20% of the population across the region.

Portugal: The Nation’s Health 1990–2016 explores the progress Portugal has experienced over the last 26 years, in terms of health, well-being, and development, and the new challenges it faces as its population grows and ages.

This report draws from the Access, Bottlenecks, Costs, and Equity (ABCE) project in Gujarat, India, part of a multi-pronged and multi-country research collaboration focused on understanding what drives and hinders health service provision.

This report draws from the Access, Bottlenecks, Costs, and Equity (ABCE) project in Odisha, India, part of a multi-pronged and multi-country research collaboration focused on understanding what drives and hinders health service provision.

Infectious diseases are mostly preventable but still pose a public health threat in the United States, where estimates of infectious diseases mortality are not available at the county level. In this study, we estimate age-standardized mortality rates and trends by county from 1980 to 2014 from lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, HIV/AIDS, meningitis, hepatitis, and tuberculosis.

The HealthRise initiative seeks to implement and evaluate innovative community-based strategies for diabetes, hypertension and hypercholesterolemia along the entire continuum of care (CoC)-from awareness and diagnosis, through treatment and control. In this study, we present baseline findings from HealthRise South Africa, identifying gaps in the CoC, as well as key barriers to care for non-communicable diseases (NCDs).

Insufficient growth during childhood is associated with poor health outcomes and an increased risk of death. Between 2000 and 2015, nearly all African countries demonstrated improvements for children under 5 years old for stunting, wasting, and underweight, the core components of child growth failure. Here we show that striking subnational heterogeneity in levels and trends of child growth remains.   

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent the largest, and fastest growing, burden of disease in India. This study aimed to quantify levels of diagnosis, treatment, and control among hypertensive and diabetic patients, and to describe demand- and supply-side barriers to hypertension and diabetes diagnosis and care in two Indian districts, Shimla and Udaipur. IHME and partner HealthRise organizations are currently collaborating on additional publications related to the HealthRise project. Forthcoming reports and publications will be added here as they become available.

Despite dramatic growth between 1990 and 2010, development assistance for health from high-income countries and development agencies to low- and middle-income countries has stagnated, and proposed cuts make future funding uncertain. To further understand international financial flows for health, we examined international contributions from major donor countries.

With almost one-fifth of the world’s population living in India, the health status and the drivers of health loss are expected to vary between different parts of the country and between the states. Accordingly, effective efforts to improve population health in each state require systematic knowledge of the local health status and trends. While state-level trends for some important health indicators have been available in India, a comprehensive assessment of the diseases causing the most premature deaths and disability in each state, the risk factors responsible for this burden, and their time trends have not been available in a single standardised framework. Based on intense work over two years, this report describes the distribution and trends of diseases and risk factors for every state of India from 1990 to 2016.

Health care spending in the United States increased substantially from 1995 to 2015 and comprised 17.8% of the economy in 2015. Understanding the relationship between known factors and spending increases over time could inform policy efforts to contain future spending growth. We quantified changes in spending associated with five fundamental factors related to health care spending in the United States: population size, population age structure, disease prevalence or incidence, service utilization, and service price and intensity.

In the poorest regions of Chiapas, Mexico, 50.2% of women in need of contraceptives do not use any modern method. A qualitative study was needed to design effective and culturally appropriate interventions.

Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths globally. The most common causes for liver cancer include hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and alcohol use.

Chronic respiratory diseases are an important cause of death and disability in the United States. This study aims to estimate age-standardized mortality rates by county from chronic respiratory diseases.

Comparable data on the global and country-specific burden of neurological disorders and their trends are crucial for health care planning and resource allocation. In this systematic analysis, we quantified the global disease burden due to neurological disorders in 2015 and its relationship with country development level.

Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends.

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind.” Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision-makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.

Rheumatic heart disease remains an important preventable cause of cardiovascular death and disability, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated global, regional, and national trends in the prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease as part of the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common diseases with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. Here, we present methods and disease and risk estimates for COPD and asthma from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 study.

Transport injuries (TI) are ranked as one of the leading causes of death, disability, and property loss worldwide. This paper provides anover view of the burden of TI in the Eastern Mediterranean Region by age and sex from 1990 to 2015.

The 22 countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) have large populations of adolescents aged 10–24 years. These adolescents are central to assuring the health, development, and peace of this region. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), we report the leading causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents in the EMR from 1990 to 2015. 

We used the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study for estimates of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of different CVD in 22 countries of EMR.

As part of the Global Burden of Disease study, we estimated diarrheal disease burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region between 1990 and 2015.

We used GBD 2015 findings to measure the burden of intentional injuries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2015.

We used data from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to calculate the burden of lower respiratory infections in the 22 countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region from 1990 to 2015. 

Assessing the burden of maternal mortality is important for tracking progress and identifying public health gaps. This paper provides an overview of the burden of maternal mortality in the Eastern Mediterranean Region by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015.

We used the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study results to explore the burden of high body mass index in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

We aimed to determine the leading causes of premature mortality and disability using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and describe the relative burden of disease and injuries in Ethiopia.

Donor financing for malaria has declined since 2010 and this trend is projected to continue for the foreseeable future. These reductions have a significant impact on lower burden countries actively pursuing elimination, which are usually a lesser priority for donors. While domestic spending on malaria has been growing, it varies substantially in speed and magnitude across countries. A clear understanding of spending patterns and trends in donor and domestic financing is needed to uncover critical investment gaps and opportunities.

This brief provides an overview of cross-country findings for the 2013-2016 Full Country Evaluations (FCE). The FCE is a prospective study covering the period 2013–2016 with the aim of understanding and quantifying the barriers to and drivers of immunization program improvement, with emphasis on the contribution of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance in four countries: Bangladesh, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia. 

This brief provides an overview of findings in Mozambique for the 2013-2016 Full Country Evaluations (FCE). The FCE is a prospective study covering the period 2013–2016 with the aim of understanding and quantifying the barriers to and drivers of immunization program improvement.

This brief provides an overview of findings Zambia for the 2013-2016 Full Country Evaluations (FCE). The FCE is a prospective study covering the period 2013–2016 with the aim of understanding and quantifying the barriers to and drivers of immunization program improvement.

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrheal diseases. This study assesses cases, deaths, and etiologies spanning the past 25 years and informs the changing picture of diarrheal disease worldwide.

This report presents findings for Bangladesh from the 2016 Gavi Full Country Evaluations Annual Dissemination Report. The Gavi Full Country Evaluations (FCE) is a prospective study covering the period 2013–2016 with the aim of understanding and quantifying the barriers to and drivers of immunization program improvement, with emphasis on the contribution of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance in four countries: Bangladesh, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia.

This report presents findings for Zambia from the 2016 Gavi Full Country Evaluations Annual Dissemination Report. The Gavi Full Country Evaluations (FCE) is a prospective study covering the period 2013–2016 with the aim of understanding and quantifying the barriers to and drivers of immunization program improvement, with emphasis on the contribution of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance in four countries: Bangladesh, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia.

This report presents cross-country findings from the 2016 Gavi Full Country Evaluations Annual Dissemination Report. The Gavi Full Country Evaluations (FCE) is a prospective study covering the period 2013–2016 with the aim of understanding and quantifying the barriers to and drivers of immunization program improvement, with emphasis on the contribution of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance in four countries: Bangladesh, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia.

The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world. The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden.

Heart failure is a major cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). There is an urgent need for better strategies for heart failure management in this region. However, there is little information on the capacity to diagnose and treat heart failure in SSA. We aim to provide a better understanding of the capacity to diagnose and treat heart failure in Kenya and Uganda to inform policy planning and interventions.

Development assistance for health targets younger more than older age groups, relative to their disease burden. This disparity increased between 1990 and 2013. There are several potential causes for the disparity increase. We investigated the benefits from development assistance for health by age group. 

Financing Global Health 2016 is the eighth edition of IHME’s annual series on global health spending and health financing. In addition to describing the trends in development assistance for health (DAH), this year’s report features an expanded discussion of domestic spending across low-, middle-, and high-income countries to describe the context in which DAH operates, identify health financing gaps, and support the pursuit of universal health coverage.

Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policymakers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending.

Disparities in mortality by county and $115 billion in spending raise issues of cost, quality, and value of services.

Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels.

Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health. This study quantifies and describes levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion.

The aim of this study was to define the geographical distributions of dominant malaria vector sibling species in Africa so these distributions can be coupled with data on key factors such as insecticide resistance to aid more focussed, species-selective vector control.

The Global Burden of Disease 2015 study aims to use all available data of sufficient quality to generate reliable and valid prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) estimates of oral conditions for the period of 1990 to 2015. Since death as a direct result of oral diseases is rare, DALY estimates were based on years lived with disability, which are estimated only on those persons with unmet need for dental care.

The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with contraceptive use among women in need living in the poorest areas in five Mesoamerican countries: Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and State of Chiapas (Mexico).

Elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP) is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions.

US health care spending has continued to increase, and now accounts for more than 17% of the US economy. Despite the size and growth of this spending, little is known about how spending on each condition varies by age and across time.

According to GBD analyses, the rise of NCD is in part due to increased life expectancy due to reduced premature mortality from communicable, child, and maternal illnesses, but preventable risk factors also contribute and present targets for NCD control efforts.

Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. In this study we estimated mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.

The trends of COPD mortality and prevalence over the past two decades across all provinces remain unknown in China. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013 (GBD 2013) to estimate the mortality and prevalence of COPD during 1990 to 2013 at a provincial level.

No recent original studies on the pattern of diet are available for Saudi Arabia at the national level. The present study was performed to describe the consumption of foods and beverages by Saudi adults.

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. 

Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritize investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. 

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalyzed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time.

Namibia: State of the Nation’s Health explores the progress Namibia has experienced over the last two decades and the new challenges it faces as its population grows and ages. 

Previous estimates of the burden of HIV, hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs have not included estimates of the burden attributable to the consequences of past injecting. We aimed to provide these estimates as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2013.

We applied the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction to analyze factors associated with risky sexual behaviors for adolescent students living in the poorest segments in Costa Rica.

Previous analyses of diabetes prevalence in the US have considered either only large geographic regions or only individuals in whom diabetes had been diagnosed. We estimated county-level trends in the prevalence of diagnosed, undiagnosed, and total diabetes as well as rates of diagnosis and effective treatment from 1999 to 2012.

Like other countries in Asia, measles-rubella (MR) vaccine coverage in Bangladesh is suboptimal whereas 90–95 % coverage is needed for elimination of these diseases. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW) of the Government of Bangladesh implemented MR campaign in January-February 2014 to increase MR vaccination coverage. Strategically, the MOHFW used both routine immunization centres and educational institutions for providing vaccine to the children aged 9 months to <15 years. The evaluation was carried out to assess the impact of the campaign on MR vaccination and routine immunization services.

Mental illness prevalence is increasing in USA. Understanding the relationship between functional status and mental health is crucial in optimizing psychiatric treatment.

The increasing global stroke burden strongly suggests that currently implemented primary stroke prevention strategies are not sufficiently effective, and new primary prevention strategies with larger effect sizes are needed. Here, we review the latest stroke epidemiology literature, with an emphasis on the recently published Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study estimates; highlight the problems with current primary stroke and cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention strategies; and outline new developments in primary stroke and CVD prevention. 

Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and program evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.

The Global Burden of Disease: Generating Evidence, Guiding Policy in Kenya explores health progress in Kenya over the past 23 years and examines the challenges the country faces as its population grows and the landscape of its health shifts.

With recent improvements in vaccines and treatments against viral hepatitis, an improved understanding of the burden of viral hepatitis is needed to inform global intervention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to estimate morbidity and mortality for acute viral hepatitis, and for cirrhosis and liver cancer caused by viral hepatitis, by age, sex, and country from 1990 to 2013.

This paper investigates trends in suicide rate, the reasons for and means of suicide and the occupation of deceased, to prioritize suicide prevention activities in India and to highlight the limitations to data quality for surveillance.

China and India jointly account for 38% of the world population, so understanding the burden attributed to mental, neurological, and substance use disorders within these two countries is essential. As part of the Lancet/Lancet Psychiatry China–India Mental Health Alliance Series, we aim to provide estimates of the burden of mental, neurological, and substance use disorders for China and India from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013).

Young people’s health has emerged as a neglected yet pressing issue in global development. Changing patterns of young people’s health have the potential to undermine future population health as well as global economic development unless timely and effective strategies are put into place. We report the past, present, and anticipated burden of disease in young people aged 10–24 years from 1990 to 2013 using data on mortality, disability, injuries, and health risk factors.

This report presents findings for Bangladesh from the 2015 Gavi Full Country Evaluations (FCE) Annual Dissemination Report.

This report presents findings for Uganda from the 2015 Gavi Full Country Evaluations (FCE) Annual Dissemination Report.

This brief provides an overview of cross-country findings from the 2015 evaluation year.

Zika virus was discovered in Uganda in 1947 and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which also act as vectors for dengue and chikungunya viruses throughout much of the tropical world. Possible associations with microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome observed in this outbreak have raised concerns about continued global spread of Zika virus, prompting its declaration as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. We conducted species distribution modelling to map environmental suitability for Zika. We show a large portion of tropical and sub-tropical regions globally have suitable environmental conditions with over 2.17 billion people inhabiting these areas.

Financing Global Health 2015 is the seventh edition of IHME’s annual series on global health financing. This report captures trends in development assistance for health (DAH) and government health expenditure as source (GHE-S) in low- and middle-income countries.

In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected.

Increased demand for antiretroviral therapy (ART) services combined with plateaued levels of development assistance for HIV/AIDS requires that national ART programs monitor program effectiveness. In this pilot study, we compared commonly utilized performance metrics of 12- and 24-month retention with rates of viral load (VL) suppression at 15 health facilities in Uganda.

To better understand the global response to HIV/AIDS, this study tracked development assistance for HIV/AIDS at a granular, program level.

The burden of cancer in Mexico shows complex regional patterns by age, sex, types of cancer, and deprivation status. The study analyzed mortality and incidence for 28 cancers by deprivation status, age and sex from 1990 to 2013. 

High-quality epidemiological studies evaluating the burden of cutaneous leishmaniasis worldwide are lacking. We compared the burden of cutaneous leishmaniasis in each country to the overall global burden and assessed the equality of cutaneous leishmaniasis burden across different countries and regions.

In the 2012 Global Vaccine Action Plan, development assistance partners committed to providing sustainable financing for vaccines and expanding vaccination coverage to all children in low- and middle-income countries by 2020. To assess progress toward these goals, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation produced estimates of development assistance for vaccinations.

Major gains have been made in reducing malaria transmission in many parts of the world, principally by scaling-up coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying. Using analytical solutions to updated equations for vectorial capacity we build on previous work to show that, while adult killing methods can be highly effective under many circumstances, other vector control methods are frequently required to fill effective coverage gaps.

The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce.

Background There is increasing recognition of stroke as an important contributor to childhood morbidity and mortality. Current estimates of global childhood stroke burden and its temporal trends are sparse. Accurate and up-to-date estimates of childhood stroke burden are important for planning research and the resulting evidence-based strategies for stroke prevention and management. 

To analyze the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) and determine whether systematic reviews and protocols accurately represent disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study.

We conducted a large household survey in 2013 to determine the current status of oral health practices and use of oral health services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) for malaria control are widespread but coverage remains inadequate. We developed a Bayesian model using data from 102 national surveys, triangulated against delivery data and distribution reports, to generate year-by-year estimates of four ITN coverage indicators. 

Verbal autopsy (VA) is recognized as the only feasible alternative to comprehensive medical certification of deaths in settings with no or unreliable vital registration systems. However, a barrier to its use by national registration systems has been the amount of time and cost needed for data collection. In this paper we describe a shortened version of the VA instrument developed for the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium Gold Standard Verbal Autopsy Validation Study using a systematic approach.

Globally, countries are increasingly prioritizing the reduction of health inequalities and provision of universal health coverage. While national benchmarking has become more common, such work at subnational levels is rare. The timely and rigorous measurement of local levels and trends in key health interventions and outcomes is vital to identifying areas of progress and detecting early signs of stalled or declining health system performance. 

Assessing Impact, Improving Health: Progress in Child Health Across Regions in Uganda is the culmination of the Malaria Control Policy Assessment (MCPA) project, which has sought to quantify the impact of malaria control and other child health interventions on reductions in under-5 mortality.

Many major causes of disability in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study present with a range of severity, and for most causes finding population distributions of severity can be difficult due to issues of sparse data, inconsistent measurement, and need to account for comorbidities. We developed an indirect approach to obtain severity distributions empirically from survey data.

We conducted a large national survey in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 2013. We report on the health status of Saudi women and their health challenges.

Background  Global stroke epidemiology is changing rapidly. Although age-standardized rates of stroke mortality have decreased worldwide in the past two decades, the absolute numbers of people who have a stroke every year, and live with the consequences of stroke or die from their stroke, are increasing. Regular updates on the current level of stroke burden are important for advancing our knowledge on stroke epidemiology and facilitating organization and planning of evidence-based stroke care.

Background Accurate information on stroke burden in men and women is important for evidence-based healthcare planning and resource allocation. Previously, limited research suggested that the absolute number of deaths from stroke in women was greater than in men, but the incidence and mortality rates were greater in men. However, sex differences in various metrics of stroke burden on a global scale have not been a subject of comprehensive and comparable assessment for most regions of the world, nor have sex differences in stroke burden been examined for trends over time. 

There is a global commitment to reduce premature cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) 25% by 2025. The purpose of the present report is to (1) describe global trends and regional variation in premature mortality attributable to CVD, (2) review past and current approaches to the measurement of these trends, and (3) describe the limitations of existing models of epidemiological transitions for explaining the observed distribution and trends of CVD mortality.

Following the methods of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we have systematically analyzed all available demographic and epidemiological data sources for China at the provincial level. We assessed levels of and trends in all-cause mortality, causes of death, and years of life lost (YLL) in all 33 province-level administrative units in mainland China, all of which we refer to as provinces, for the years between 1990 and 2013.

Chronic diseases and their risk factors are believed to be common in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Most of them require long-term management through medications. We examined patterns of medication use for chronic health conditions (CHC) in KSA based on a national survey.

Abstract The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is a longstanding effort to report consistent and comprehensive measures of disease burden for the world. In this paper, we describe the methods used to estimate the global burden of stroke for the GBD 2013 study. Pathologic subtypes of stroke are modeled separately for two mutually exclusive and exhaustive categories: (1) ischemic stroke and (2) hemorrhagic and other non-ischemic strokes. Acute and chronic strokes are estimated separately. The GBD 2013 study has incorporated large amounts of new data on stroke death rates, incidence, and case fatality. Disease modeling methods have been updated to better integrate mortality and incidence data. Future efforts will focus on incorporating data on the regional variation in severity of disability. Stroke remains a new area for disease modeling. A better understanding of stroke incidence, mortality, and severity, and how it varies among countries, can help guide priority setting and improve health policy related to this important condition.