Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts in many countries. In this study, we developed novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, migration, and population. We also assessed potential economic and geopolitical effects of future demographic shifts.
We provide a publicly available dataset and evaluation framework for assessing the predictive validity of COVID-19 mortality forecasts.
We sought to update the most widely reported estimate of 93 million children <15 years with disabilities from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.
Skin and subcutaneous diseases affect the health of millions of individuals in the US. Data are needed that highlight the geographic trends and variations of skin disease burden across the country to guide health care decision-making.
We conducted a descriptive epidemiological analysis of HIV/AIDS burden for the 16 SADC countries using secondary data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factor (GBD) Study.
In this study, we aimed to characterise the burden of chronic respiratory diseases globally, providing a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis on geographical and time trends from 1990 to 2017.
In 2010, Saudi Arabia began a major investment and transformation programme in the health-care sector. Here we assess the impact of this investment era on mortality, health loss, risk factors, and health-care services in the country.
Low-income countries have reduced health care system capacity and are therefore at risk of substantially higher COVID-19 case fatality rates than those currently seen in high-income countries. Handwashing is a key component of guidance to reduce transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic.
We present a detailed analysis of subnational trends of child mortality to inform efforts aimed at meeting the India National Health Policy (NHP) and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for child mortality.
Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.
We used spending estimates to measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG 3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG 3 indicators for which data are available.
We aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of total spending on tuberculosis in low-income and middle-income countries for 2000–2017.
In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic will place a load on health system resources well beyond the current capacity of hospitals in the USA and EEA to manage, especially for ICU care and ventilator use. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity.
We show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units.
We model the within-country distribution of years of schooling, and use this model to explore educational inequality since 1970 and to forecast progress towards the education-related 2030 SDG targets.
We aim to assess child and adolescent injury morbidity and mortality and estimate its burden in the Eastern Mediterranean Region based on findings from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries and Risk Factors study 2017.
In Mexico, from 1990 to 2017, mortality due to unintentional injuries has decreased, while non-fatal incident cases have increased. However, unintentional injuries continue to cause considerable mortality and morbidity, with patterns that vary by state, age, sex and year.
Updated statistics on the incidence and mortality of oesophageal cancer, and on the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the disease, can assist policy makers in allocating resources for prevention, treatment, and care of oesophageal cancer.
As part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD), degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD), and other NRVD were estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017.
Assuming social distancing measures are maintained, what are the forecasted gaps in available health service resources and number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic for each state in the United States?
We collected data on the following: (a) Key dates, which include the date of onset of disease, date of admission to hospital, date of confirmation of infection, and dates of travel. (b) Demographic information about the age and sex of patients/cases. (c) Geographic information, at the highest resolution available down to the district level.
Time series of disease incidence collected through ordinary surveillance activities may exhibit characteristic signatures prior to an outbreak, a phenomenon that may be quite general among infectious disease systems.
Haemorrhage remains the leading cause of maternal mortality in Central America. The Salud Mesoamérica Initiative aims to reduce such mortality via performance indicators. Our objective was to assess the availability and administration of oxytocin, before and after applying Salud Mesoamérica Initiative interventions in the poorest health facilities across Central America.
Low-middle and middle SDI countries have demonstrated increasing rates of fracture and amputation over the last 27 years. This trend is concerning as access to quality and subspecialised surgical hand care is often limiting in these resource-limited regions.
The stability of our global age-standardised prevalence estimates over time suggests that the epidemiology of the disease has not changed, but the estimates of all-age prevalence and YLDs, which increased between 1990 and 2017, suggest that the burden of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease is nonetheless increasing as a result of ageing and population growth.