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Research Articles


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July 14, 2020
Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study
Research Article

Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts in many countries. In this study, we developed novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, migration, and population. We also assessed potential economic and geopolitical effects of future demographic shifts.

July 14, 2020
Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models
Research Article

We provide a publicly available dataset and evaluation framework for assessing the predictive validity of COVID-19 mortality forecasts.

July 1, 2020
Global Burden of Childhood Epilepsy, Intellectual Disability, and Sensory Impairments
Research Article

We sought to update the most widely reported estimate of 93 million children <15 years with disabilities from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

June 10, 2020
The Burden of Skin and Subcutaneous Diseases in the United States From 1990 to 2017
Research Article

Skin and subcutaneous diseases affect the health of millions of individuals in the US. Data are needed that highlight the geographic trends and variations of skin disease burden across the country to guide health care decision-making.

June 5, 2020
Burden and changes in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Southern Africa Development Community Countries, 1990–2017
Research Article

We conducted a descriptive epidemiological analysis of HIV/AIDS burden for the 16 SADC countries using secondary data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factor (GBD) Study.

June 1, 2020
Prevalence and attributable health burden of chronic respiratory diseases, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

In this study, we aimed to characterise the burden of chronic respiratory diseases globally, providing a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis on geographical and time trends from 1990 to 2017.

May 30, 2020
The burden of disease in Saudi Arabia 1990–2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

In 2010, Saudi Arabia began a major investment and transformation programme in the health-care sector. Here we assess the impact of this investment era on mortality, health loss, risk factors, and health-care services in the country.

May 15, 2020
Global Access to Handwashing: Implications for COVID-19 Control in Low-Income Countries
Research Article

Low-income countries have reduced health care system capacity and are therefore at risk of substantially higher COVID-19 case fatality rates than those currently seen in high-income countries. Handwashing is a key component of guidance to reduce transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic. 

May 11, 2020
Subnational mapping of under-5 and neonatal mortality trends in India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2000–17
Research Article

We present a detailed analysis of subnational trends of child mortality to inform efforts aimed at meeting the India National Health Policy (NHP) and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for child mortality.

May 6, 2020
Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

April 23, 2020
Health sector spending and spending on HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, and development assistance for health: progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3
Research Article

We used spending estimates to measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG 3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG 3 indicators for which data are available.

April 23, 2020
Tracking total spending on tuberculosis by source and function in 135 low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: a financial modelling study
Research Article

We aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of total spending on tuberculosis in low-income and middle-income countries for 2000–2017.

April 21, 2020
Forecasting the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital demand and deaths for the USA and European Economic Area countries
Research Article

In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic will place a load on health system resources well beyond the current capacity of hospitals in the USA and EEA to manage, especially for ICU care and ventilator use. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity.

April 20, 2020
Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
Research Article

We show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units.

April 15, 2020
Measuring and forecasting progress towards the education-related SDG targets
Research Article

We model the within-country distribution of years of schooling, and use this model to explore educational inequality since 1970 and to forecast progress towards the education-related 2030 SDG targets.

April 3, 2020
Child and adolescent injury burden in the eastern mediterranean region: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease 1990-2017
Research Article

We aim to assess child and adolescent injury morbidity and mortality and estimate its burden in the Eastern Mediterranean Region based on findings from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries and Risk Factors study 2017.

April 1, 2020
Unintentional injuries in Mexico, 1990–2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

In Mexico, from 1990 to 2017, mortality due to unintentional injuries has decreased, while non-fatal incident cases have increased. However, unintentional injuries continue to cause considerable mortality and morbidity, with patterns that vary by state, age, sex and year.

April 1, 2020
The global, regional, and national burden of oesophageal cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

Updated statistics on the incidence and mortality of oesophageal cancer, and on the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the disease, can assist policy makers in allocating resources for prevention, treatment, and care of oesophageal cancer. 

March 30, 2020
Global, regional, and national burden of calcific aortic valve and degenerative mitral valve diseases, 1990-2017
Research Article

As part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD), degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD), and other NRVD were estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017.

March 26, 2020
Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months
Research Article

Assuming social distancing measures are maintained, what are the forecasted gaps in available health service resources and number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic for each state in the United States?

March 24, 2020
Epidemiological data from the COVID-19 outbreak, real-time case information
Research Article

We collected data on the following: (a) Key dates, which include the date of onset of disease, date of admission to hospital, date of confirmation of infection, and dates of travel. (b) Demographic information about the age and sex of patients/cases. (c) Geographic information, at the highest resolution available down to the district level. 

March 18, 2020
Early warning signals of malaria resurgence in Kericho, Kenya
Research Article

Time series of disease incidence collected through ordinary surveillance activities may exhibit characteristic signatures prior to an outbreak, a phenomenon that may be quite general among infectious disease systems.

March 16, 2020
Access and use of oxytocin for postpartum haemorrhage prevention: a pre-post study targeting the poorest in six Mesoamerican countries
Research Article

Haemorrhage remains the leading cause of maternal mortality in Central America. The Salud Mesoamérica Initiative aims to reduce such mortality via performance indicators. Our objective was to assess the availability and administration of oxytocin, before and after applying Salud Mesoamérica Initiative interventions in the poorest health facilities across Central America.

March 13, 2020
Global trends of hand and wrist trauma: a systematic analysis of fracture and digit amputation using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study
Research Article

 Low-middle and middle SDI countries have demonstrated increasing rates of fracture and amputation over the last 27 years. This trend is concerning as access to quality and subspecialised surgical hand care is often limiting in these resource-limited regions.

March 13, 2020
The global, regional, and national burden of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

The stability of our global age-standardised prevalence estimates over time suggests that the epidemiology of the disease has not changed, but the estimates of all-age prevalence and YLDs, which increased between 1990 and 2017, suggest that the burden of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease is nonetheless increasing as a result of ageing and population growth.

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