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Research Articles


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September 30, 2020
Trends in prevalence, mortality, and morbidity associated with high systolic blood pressure in Brazil from 1990 to 2017: estimates from the “Global Burden of Disease 2017” (GBD 2017) study
Research Article

We aimed to describe trends in prevalence and burden of disease attributable to high systolic blood pressure (HSBP) among Brazilians ≥ 25 years old according to sex and federal units (FU) using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.

September 30, 2020
Depressive disorders in Brazil: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

Depression is one of the major causes of disability worldwide. The objective of this study was to analyze the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD-2017) for depressive disorders in Brazil and its Federated Units (FUs) in 1990 and 2017.

September 18, 2020
The burden of cardiovascular diseases in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2017: evidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study
Research Article

This systematic analysis estimated the burden of CVDs in Ethiopia using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study data. 

September 10, 2020
Mapping global trends in vaccine confidence and investigating barriers to vaccine uptake: a large-scale retrospective temporal modelling study
Research Article

In this study, vaccine confidence was mapped across 149 countries between 2015 and 2019.

August 27, 2020
Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

August 19, 2020
Mapping geographic inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low- and middle-income countries, 2000–2017
Research Article

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

August 19, 2020
The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000–2018: a geospatial analysis
Research Article

Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection.

July 29, 2020
Informing Rift Valley Fever preparedness by mapping seasonally varying environmental suitability
Research Article

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) poses a threat to human and animal health throughout much of Africa and the Middle East and has been recognized as a global health security priority and a key preparedness target.

July 22, 2020
Mapping male circumcision for HIV prevention efforts in sub-Saharan Africa
Research Article

HIV remains the largest cause of disease burden among men and women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa. Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of female-to-male transmission of HIV by 50–60%. 

July 22, 2020
Mapping geographic inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low- and middle-income countries, 2000–17
Research Article

Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016.

July 14, 2020
Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study
Research Article

Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts in many countries. In this study, we developed novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, migration, and population. We also assessed potential economic and geopolitical effects of future demographic shifts.

July 14, 2020
Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models
Research Article

We provide a publicly available dataset and evaluation framework for assessing the predictive validity of COVID-19 mortality forecasts.

July 1, 2020
Global Burden of Childhood Epilepsy, Intellectual Disability, and Sensory Impairments
Research Article

We sought to update the most widely reported estimate of 93 million children <15 years with disabilities from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

June 10, 2020
The Burden of Skin and Subcutaneous Diseases in the United States From 1990 to 2017
Research Article

Skin and subcutaneous diseases affect the health of millions of individuals in the US. Data are needed that highlight the geographic trends and variations of skin disease burden across the country to guide health care decision-making.

June 5, 2020
Burden and changes in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Southern Africa Development Community Countries, 1990–2017
Research Article

We conducted a descriptive epidemiological analysis of HIV/AIDS burden for the 16 SADC countries using secondary data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factor (GBD) Study.

June 1, 2020
Prevalence and attributable health burden of chronic respiratory diseases, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

In this study, we aimed to characterise the burden of chronic respiratory diseases globally, providing a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis on geographical and time trends from 1990 to 2017.

May 30, 2020
The burden of disease in Saudi Arabia 1990–2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

In 2010, Saudi Arabia began a major investment and transformation programme in the health-care sector. Here we assess the impact of this investment era on mortality, health loss, risk factors, and health-care services in the country.

May 15, 2020
Global Access to Handwashing: Implications for COVID-19 Control in Low-Income Countries
Research Article

Low-income countries have reduced health care system capacity and are therefore at risk of substantially higher COVID-19 case fatality rates than those currently seen in high-income countries. Handwashing is a key component of guidance to reduce transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic. 

May 11, 2020
Subnational mapping of under-5 and neonatal mortality trends in India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2000–17
Research Article

We present a detailed analysis of subnational trends of child mortality to inform efforts aimed at meeting the India National Health Policy (NHP) and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for child mortality.

May 6, 2020
Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

April 23, 2020
Health sector spending and spending on HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, and development assistance for health: progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3
Research Article

We used spending estimates to measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG 3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG 3 indicators for which data are available.

April 23, 2020
Tracking total spending on tuberculosis by source and function in 135 low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: a financial modelling study
Research Article

We aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of total spending on tuberculosis in low-income and middle-income countries for 2000–2017.

April 21, 2020
Forecasting the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital demand and deaths for the USA and European Economic Area countries
Research Article

In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic will place a load on health system resources well beyond the current capacity of hospitals in the USA and EEA to manage, especially for ICU care and ventilator use. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity.

April 20, 2020
Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
Research Article

We show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units.

April 15, 2020
Measuring and forecasting progress towards the education-related SDG targets
Research Article

We model the within-country distribution of years of schooling, and use this model to explore educational inequality since 1970 and to forecast progress towards the education-related 2030 SDG targets.

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