Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. This study provides a novel approach to modeling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts – and alternative future scenarios – for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories.
The Salud Mesoamérica Initiative is a public-private partnership aimed at reducing maternal and child morbidity and mortality for the poorest populations in Central America and the southernmost state of Mexico.
Our aim was to describe the total disease burden in Norway in 2016, its development over the last 10 years and sex differences in the disease burden. Non-fatal health loss constitutes a large and increasing proportion of the disease burden in the Norwegian population, which will bring new challenges for the health care system.
Both the IHME and World Bank human capital measures utilize data on mortality, health, education, and learning to create a comprehensive metric of the human capital of the future workforce that is comparable across countries. The two measures differ, however, in their conceptual basis, including what is captured in each component, the data sources utilized, the methods of aggregation across the various components, and the countries and years for which estimates are produced. This document provides a comparison of the construction of these two human capital measures and a preliminary comparison of the results.
Neurological disorders are now the leading source of disability globally, and aging is increasing the burden of neurodegenerative disorders, including Parkinson’s disease. We aimed to determine the global burden of Parkinson’s disease between 1990 and 2016 to identify trends and to enable appropriate public health, medical, and scientific responses.
Shigella and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) are bacterial pathogens that are frequently associated with diarrheal disease, and are a significant cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. We aimed to analyze the global burden of shigella and ETEC diarrhea according to age, sex, geography, and year from 1990 to 2016.
Human capital is recognised as the level of education and health in a population and is considered an important determinant of economic growth. The World Bank has called for measurement and annual reporting of human capital to track and motivate investments in health and education and enhance productivity. We aim to provide a new comprehensive measure of human capital across countries globally.
Diarrheal diseases are the third leading cause of disease and death in children younger than 5 years of age in Africa and were responsible for an estimated 30 million cases of severe diarrhea and 330,000 deaths in 2015. Our findings showed concentrated areas of diarrheal disease and diarrhea-related death in countries that had a consistently high burden as well as in countries that had considerable national-level reductions in diarrhea burden.
Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and etiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages.
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhea in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and etiologies in 1990–2016 and assesses how the burden of diarrhea has changed in people of all ages.
Previous efforts to report estimates of cancer incidence and mortality in India and its different parts include the National Cancer Registry Programme Reports, Sample Registration System cause of death findings, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Series, and GLOBOCAN. We present a comprehensive picture of the patterns and time trends of the burden of total cancer and specific cancer types in each state of India estimated as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 because such a systematic compilation is not readily available.
A systematic understanding of suicide mortality trends over time at the subnational level for India’s 1.3 billion people, 18% of the global population, is not readily available. Thus, we aimed to report time trends of suicide deaths, and the heterogeneity in its distribution between the states of India from 1990 to 2016. India’s proportional contribution to global suicide deaths is high and increasing. The suicide death rate in India is higher than expected for its Socio-demographic Index level, especially for women, with substantial variations in the magnitude and men-to-women ratio between the states. India must develop a suicide prevention strategy that takes into account these variations in order to address this major public health problem.
In this report, we present a detailed analysis of how the patterns of cardiovascular diseases and major risk factors have changed across the states of India between 1990 and 2016. The burden from the leading cardiovascular diseases in India – ischemic heart disease and stroke – varies widely between the states. Their increasing prevalence and that of several major risk factors in every part of India, especially the highest increase in the prevalence of ischemic heart disease in the less-developed states, indicates the need for urgent policy and health system response appropriate for the situation in each state.
The burden of diabetes is increasing rapidly in India, but a systematic understanding of its distribution and time trends is not available for every state of India. We present a comprehensive analysis of the time trends and heterogeneity in the distribution of diabetes burden across all states of India between 1990 and 2016. The increase in health loss from diabetes since 1990 in India is the highest among major non-communicable diseases.
India has 18% of the global population and an increasing burden of chronic respiratory diseases. However, a systematic understanding of the distribution of chronic respiratory diseases and their trends over time is not readily available for all of the states of India. Our aim was to report the trends in the burden of chronic respiratory diseases and the heterogeneity in their distribution in all states of India between 1990 and 2016.
Brazil has high burdens of tuberculosis (TB) and HIV, as previously estimated for the 26 states and the Federal District, as well as high levels of inequality in social and health indicators. We improved the geographic detail of burden estimation by modelling deaths due to TB and HIV and TB case fatality ratios for the more than 5,400 municipalities in Brazil.
Over the past few decades, social and economic changes have had substantial effects on health and well-being in Russia. We aimed to use data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to evaluate trends in mortality, causes of death, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years, and associated risk factors in Russia from 1980 to 2016.
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) mandate systematic monitoring of the health and well-being of all children to achieve optimal early childhood development. However, global epidemiological data on children with developmental disabilities are scarce. This study estimates prevalence and YLDs for epilepsy, intellectual disability, hearing loss, vision loss, autism spectrum disorder, and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder for children younger than 5 years.
Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. This study estimated between 195,000 and 276,000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.
Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk for all-cause mortality, and cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimizes health loss is zero.
Rotavirus infection is the global leading cause of diarrhea-associated morbidity and mortality among children younger than 5 years. This report builds on findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2016, a cross-sectional study that measured diarrheal diseases and their etiologic agents.
Few data are available on the supply and consumption of nutrients at the country level. To address this data gap, we aimed to create a database that provides information on availability (i.e., supply) of 156 nutrients across 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2013.
This study aims to report the burden of diseases and injuries in Afghanistan between 1990 and 2016. Despite improvements in certain health indicators, our study suggests an urgent intervention to improve health status of the country. Improving health infrastructures, boosting maternal and child health (MCH), battling infectious diseases as well as chronic disease risk factor modification programs can help to decrease burden of diseases.
Following the economic crisis in Greece in 2010, the country's ongoing austerity measures include a substantial contraction of health care expenditure, with reports of subsequent negative health consequences. The findings of increases in total deaths and accelerated population aging call for specific focus from health policymakers to ensure the health care system is equipped to meet the needs of the people in Greece.
Political, economic, and epidemiological changes in Brazil have affected health and the health system. Health improved from 1990 to 2016, but improvements and disease burden varied between states. An epidemiological transition toward non-communicable diseases and related risks occurred nationally, but later in some states, while interpersonal violence grew as a health concern.