This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.
The onchocerciasis database can be used to by the global health community to advance understanding of the distribution of onchocerciasis infection and disease.
Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level.
Examining causes of death and making comparisons across countries may increase understanding of the income-related differences in life expectancy. In Norway, there were substantial and increasing gaps in life expectancy by income level from 2005 to 2015. The largest differences in life expectancy between Norway and the United States were for individuals in the lower to middle part of the income distribution.
Understanding causes and correlates of health loss among children and adolescents can identify areas of success, stagnation, and emerging threats and thereby facilitate effective improvement strategies. This study examined levels, trends, and spatiotemporal patterns of cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes from 1990 to 2017 on children and adolescents from birth through 19 years of age in 195 countries and territories.
We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories – government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending – and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050.
Between 2012 and 2016, development assistance for HIV/AIDS decreased by 20.0%; domestic financing is therefore critical to sustaining the response to HIV/AIDS. To understand whether domestic resources could fill the financing gaps created by declines in development assistance, we aimed to track spending on HIV/AIDS and estimated the potential for governments to devote additional domestic funds to HIV/AIDS.
Sustaining achievements in malaria control and making progress toward malaria elimination requires coordinated funding. We estimated domestic malaria spending by source in 106 countries that were malaria endemic in 2000–2016 or became malaria-free after 2000.
Routine childhood vaccination is among the most cost-effective, successful public health interventions available. Amid substantial investments to expand vaccine delivery throughout Africa and strengthen administrative reporting systems, most countries still require robust measures of local routine vaccine coverage and changes in geographical inequalities over time.
Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity.
Human mobility is an important driver of geographic spread of infectious pathogens. Our findings show that transmission patterns derived from general human movement models can improve forecasts of spatiotemporal transmission patterns in places where local mobility data is unavailable.
Podoconiosis is a type of tropical lymphoedema that causes massive swelling of the lower limbs. The disease is associated with both economic insecurity, due to long-term morbidity-related loss of productivity, and intense social stigma. Reliable and detailed data on the prevalence and distribution of podoconiosis are scarce. We aimed to fill this data gap by doing a nationwide community-based study to estimate the number of cases throughout Rwanda.
Neurological disorders are increasingly recognized as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.
When enforced by free and fair elections, democracies are more likely than autocracies to lead to health gains for causes of mortality (e.g., cardiovascular diseases and transport injuries) that have not been heavily targeted by foreign aid and require health care delivery infrastructure. International health agencies and donors might increasingly need to consider the implications of regime type in their efforts to maximize health gains, particularly in the context of aging populations and the growing burden of non-communicable diseases.
Rapid demographic, epidemiological, and nutritional transitons have brought a pressing need to track progress in adolescent health. Here, we present country-level estimates of 12 headline indicators from the Lancet Commission on adolescent health and well-being, from 1990 to 2016.
Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability worldwide and the economic costs of treatment and post-stroke care are substantial. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic, comparable method of quantifying health loss by disease, age, sex, year, and location to provide information to health systems and policymakers on more than 300 causes of disease and injury, including stroke. The results presented here are the estimates of burden due to overall stroke and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke from GBD 2016.
Traditional metrics for population health aging tend not to differentiate between extending life expectancy and adding healthy years. A population aging metric that reflects both longevity and health status, incorporates a comprehensive range of diseases, and allows for comparisons across countries and time is required to understand the progression of aging and to inform policies. The new metric facilitates the shift from thinking not just about chronological age but the health status and disease severity of aging populations. Our findings could provide inputs into policymaking by identifying key drivers of variation in the aging burden and resources required for addressing the burden.
In 2015, high rates of microcephaly were reported in Northeast Brazil following the first South American Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak. Reported microcephaly rates in other Zika-affected areas were significantly lower, suggesting alternate causes or the involvement of arboviral cofactors in exacerbating microcephaly rates. This study strengthens the evidence that congenital ZIKV infection, particularly in the first 2 trimesters of pregnancy, is associated with microcephaly and less frequently with other birth defects.
The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases – including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika – is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programs and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.
Everyone deserves a long and healthy life, but in reality, health outcomes differ across populations. We use results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017) to report patterns in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risks at the global, regional, national, and subnational level, and by sociodemographic index (SDI), from 1990 to 2017.
Brain and CNS cancers (collectively referred to as CNS cancers) are a source of mortality and morbidity for which diagnosis and treatment require extensive resource allocation and sophisticated diagnostic and therapeutic technology. In this analysis, we aimed to provide a comparable and comprehensive estimation of the global burden of brain cancer between 1990 and 2016.
Efforts to quantify the global burden of enteric fever are valuable for understanding the health lost and the large-scale spatial distribution of the disease. We present the estimates of typhoid and paratyphoid fever burden from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, and the approach taken to produce them.
Seizures and their consequences contribute to the burden of epilepsy because they can cause health loss (premature mortality and residual disability). Data on the burden of epilepsy are needed for health care planning and resource allocation. The aim of this study was to quantify health loss due to epilepsy by age, sex, year, and location using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.
Antenatal care (ANC) is a means to identify high-risk pregnancies and educate women so that they might experience a healthier delivery and outcome. The present analysis examines whether ANC uptake is associated with other maternal and child health behaviors in poor mothers in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Mexico (Chiapas).
Age-standardized mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide. Suicide mortality was variable across locations, between sexes, and between age groups. Suicide prevention strategies can be targeted toward vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortality rates.