In this report of the Commission, we synthesize existing evidence and new epidemiological and financial analyses to show that malaria eradication by 2050 is a bold but attainable goal, and a necessary one given the never-ending struggle against drug and insecticide resistance and the social and economic costs associated with a failure to eradicate.
To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions.
This study describes the distribution of relative entomological risks for malaria transmission among households at multiple sites across a range of mosquito densities and transmission levels and through multiple seasons.
A comprehensive evaluation of the burden of injury is an important foundation for selecting and formulating strategies of injury prevention. We present results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 of non-fatal and fatal outcomes of injury at the national and subnational level, and the changes in burden for key causes of injury over time in China.
Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.
Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 methodology, childhood (ages 0–19 years) cancer mortality was estimated. The GBD 2017 results call attention to the substantial burden of childhood cancer globally, which disproportionately affects populations in resource-limited settings.
Our estimates provide the ability to visualize subnational exclusive breastfeeding variability and identify populations in need of additional breastfeeding support.
In this Health Policy perspective, we examined trends in DAH and its evolution over time, with a particular focus on G20 countries; pointed to persistent and emerging challenges for discussion at the G20 Summit; and highlighted key questions for G20 leaders to address to put the future of DAH on course to meet the expansive Sustainable Development Goals.
Public health is a priority for the Chinese Government. Evidence-based decision-making for health at the province level in China, which is home to a fifth of the global population, is of paramount importance. This analysis uses data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to help inform decision-making and monitor progress on health at the province level.
Since 2000, the scale-up of malaria control interventions has substantially reduced morbidity and mortality caused by the disease globally, fuelling bold aims for disease elimination. High-resolution maps of P. falciparum provide a contemporary resource for informing global policy and malaria control planning, program implementation, and monitoring initiatives.
Plasmodium vivax exacts a significant toll on health worldwide, yet few efforts to date have quantified the extent and temporal trends of its global distribution. This study presents the first global maps of P. vivax clinical burden from 2000 to 2017.
Existing WHO estimates of the prevalence of mental disorders in emergency settings are more than a decade old and do not reflect modern methods to gather existing data and derive estimates. We sought to update WHO estimates for the prevalence of mental disorders in conflict-affected settings and calculate the burden per 1,000 population. We estimated that the prevalence of mental disorders (depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia) was 22.1% (95% UI 18.8–25.7) at any point in time in the conflict-affected populations assessed.
This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.
The onchocerciasis database can be used to by the global health community to advance understanding of the distribution of onchocerciasis infection and disease.
Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level.
Examining causes of death and making comparisons across countries may increase understanding of the income-related differences in life expectancy. In Norway, there were substantial and increasing gaps in life expectancy by income level from 2005 to 2015. The largest differences in life expectancy between Norway and the United States were for individuals in the lower to middle part of the income distribution.
Understanding causes and correlates of health loss among children and adolescents can identify areas of success, stagnation, and emerging threats and thereby facilitate effective improvement strategies. This study examined levels, trends, and spatiotemporal patterns of cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes from 1990 to 2017 on children and adolescents from birth through 19 years of age in 195 countries and territories.
We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories – government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending – and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050.
Between 2012 and 2016, development assistance for HIV/AIDS decreased by 20.0%; domestic financing is therefore critical to sustaining the response to HIV/AIDS. To understand whether domestic resources could fill the financing gaps created by declines in development assistance, we aimed to track spending on HIV/AIDS and estimated the potential for governments to devote additional domestic funds to HIV/AIDS.
Sustaining achievements in malaria control and making progress toward malaria elimination requires coordinated funding. We estimated domestic malaria spending by source in 106 countries that were malaria endemic in 2000–2016 or became malaria-free after 2000.
Routine childhood vaccination is among the most cost-effective, successful public health interventions available. Amid substantial investments to expand vaccine delivery throughout Africa and strengthen administrative reporting systems, most countries still require robust measures of local routine vaccine coverage and changes in geographical inequalities over time.
Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity.
Human mobility is an important driver of geographic spread of infectious pathogens. Our findings show that transmission patterns derived from general human movement models can improve forecasts of spatiotemporal transmission patterns in places where local mobility data is unavailable.
Podoconiosis is a type of tropical lymphoedema that causes massive swelling of the lower limbs. The disease is associated with both economic insecurity, due to long-term morbidity-related loss of productivity, and intense social stigma. Reliable and detailed data on the prevalence and distribution of podoconiosis are scarce. We aimed to fill this data gap by doing a nationwide community-based study to estimate the number of cases throughout Rwanda.
Neurological disorders are increasingly recognized as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.