The projections were last updated at 2:00 p.m. Pacific, December 16, 2022. After December 16, 2022, IHME will pause its COVID-19 modeling for the foreseeable future. Past estimates and COVID-related resources will remain publicly available via healthdata.org/covid.
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To project future COVID-19 trends, IHME uses the available data on vaccine efficacy, summarized here.
Read summaries of the latest results for 230+ locations, including WHO regions, national, and subnational locations.
IHME director and lead modeler Dr. Christopher J.L. Murray shares insights from our latest COVID-19 model run.
Low levels of government and social trust, as well as higher levels of government corruption, are strongly correlated to higher COVID-19 infection rates around the world, according to a new peer-reviewed study published today in The Lancet.
Our updated modeling strategy now estimates total COVID-19 mortality, including unreported deaths due to COVID-19.
Our updated modeling strategy now includes the Omicron variant and factors in waning natural and vaccine-derived immunity.