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COVID-19


Click here to view the projections

The projections were last updated at 2:00 p.m. Pacific, December 16, 2022. After December 16, 2022, IHME will pause its COVID-19 modeling for the foreseeable future. Past estimates and COVID-related resources will remain publicly available via healthdata.org/covid.

To be alerted of new COVID-19 insights, subscribe to our newsletter.

syringe

COVID-19 vaccine efficacy summary

To project future COVID-19 trends, IHME uses the available data on vaccine efficacy, summarized here.

COVID-19 policy briefings

Read summaries of the latest results for 230+ locations, including WHO regions, national, and subnational locations.

IHME COVID-19 insights blog

IHME director and lead modeler Dr. Christopher J.L. Murray shares insights from our latest COVID-19 model run. 

red background

Lack of trust has helped fuel the COVID-19 pandemic, new study shows

Low levels of government and social trust, as well as higher levels of government corruption, are strongly correlated to higher COVID-19 infection rates around the world, according to a new peer-reviewed study published today in The Lancet.

graph of total covid deaths vs. reported deaths

Estimation of total and excess mortality due to COVID-19

Our updated modeling strategy now estimates total COVID-19 mortality, including unreported deaths due to COVID-19.

COVID-19 model update: Omicron and waning immunity

Our updated modeling strategy now includes the Omicron variant and factors in waning natural and vaccine-derived immunity.


COVID-19 resources

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