COVID-19

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
1=not very likely; 10=extremely likely: *	1=not very likely; 10=extremely likely: - 1	1=not very likely; 10=extremely likely: - 2	1=not very likely; 10=extremely likely: - 3	1=not very likely; 10=extremely likely: - 4	1=not very likely; 10=extremely likely: - 5	1=not very likely; 10=extremely likely: - 6	1=not very likely; 10=extremely likely: - 7	1=not very likely; 10=extremely likely: - 8	1=not very likely; 10=extremely likely: - 9	1=not very likely; 10=extremely likely: - 10

The projections were last updated at 12:30 p.m. Pacific, November 18, 2022.

To be alerted of new COVID-19 insights, subscribe to our newsletter.

COVID-19 vaccine efficacy summary

To project future COVID-19 trends, IHME uses the available data on vaccine efficacy, summarized here.

COVID-19 policy briefings

Read summaries of the latest results for 230+ locations, including WHO regions, national, and subnational locations.

IHME COVID-19 insights blog

IHME director and lead modeler Dr. Christopher J.L. Murray shares insights from our latest COVID-19 model run.

Lack of trust has helped fuel the COVID-19 pandemic, new study shows

Low levels of government and social trust, as well as higher levels of government corruption, are strongly correlated to higher COVID-19 infection rates around the world, according to a new peer-reviewed study published today in The Lancet.

graph of total covid deaths vs. reported deaths

Estimation of total and excess mortality due to COVID-19

Our updated modeling strategy now estimates total COVID-19 mortality, including unreported deaths due to COVID-19.

COVID-19 model update: Omicron and waning immunity

Our updated modeling strategy now includes the Omicron variant and factors in waning natural and vaccine-derived immunity.

COVID-19 resources