Topline
The average life expectancy of people across the world dropped by 1.6 years in the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, a new Lancet study of census and other data showed this week, and the United States experienced the highest excess mortality rate in 2020 and 2021 when compared to similar high-wealth nations.
Photographs and memorials for those who died during the first six weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic sit ... [+]
Key Facts
Mortality rates had been steadily falling for the 70 years before Covid-19 infections began to spread, the study showed, but a pandemic-fueled reversal saw global mortality jump from 2019 to 2021, rising 22% in men over age 15 and 17% for women.
Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22.7 years (from 49 to 71.7 years) overall, but that number was impacted by a 1.6-year drop worldwide between 2019 and 2021—a drastic reversal of historic trends.
Of the 204 countries and territories studied by Lancet, only 32 (or 15.7%) saw an increase in expected life expectancy between 2019 and 2021.
In the United States, an additional 1.59 per 1,000 people died in 2020 and 2021 than were expected to if not for the Covid-19 pandemic, the study showed, higher than the excess mortality rate of 1.04 seen globally.
Among the 37 countries similarly classified as “high income” by the Lancet study, the United States’ excess mortality rate was the highest, followed by Italy at 1.38 excess deaths, Monaco at 1.33 and Portugal at 1.05.
By region, Southeast Asia (which includes China, Thailand and North Korea) saw the lowest rise in excess mortality at .24 per 1,000 and Central Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia saw the highest at 2.7.
Big Number
12.3%. That's the percentage of the 131 million global deaths in 2020 and 2021 that can be attributed to Covid-19, according to Lancet, either through direct infection or social, economic or behavioral changes associated with the pandemic.
Crucial Quote
“For adults worldwide, the Covid-19 pandemic has had a more profound impact than any event seen in half a century, including conflicts and natural disasters,” study author Austin Schumacher said in a statement. “Life expectancy declined in 84% of countries and territories during this pandemic, demonstrating the devastating potential impacts of novel pathogens.”
Contra
While overall mortality increased, global deaths in children saw a decline in 2020 and 2021. A total of 5.21 million people under the age of 5 died in 2019, significantly higher than the 4.66 that died in 2021. Mortality rates among young children decreased 7% from 2019 to 2021.
Tangent
In addition to studying the impact of the early Covid pandemic, Lancet researchers found that global population growth has been dropping since 2017 and continued to fall more rapidly during the pandemic. In addition, the world's populations are aging. The number of people aged 65 and older grew faster than the number of people under age 15 in 188 countries and territories studied between 2000 and 2021, the study found.
What To Watch For
How population changes will impact global health. Older populations and an increasing number of citizens in poorer countries with worse health outcomes “will bring about unprecedented social, economic and political challenges,” Schumacher warned, including labor shortages and resource scarcity.
Further Reading
