To project future COVID-19 trends, IHME uses the available data on vaccine efficacy, summarized here.
November 18, 2022
December 22, 2021
Our updated modeling strategy now includes the Omicron variant and factors in waning natural and vaccine-derived immunity.
October 15, 2021
Our updated modeling strategy now estimates total COVID-19 mortality, including unreported deaths due to COVID-19.
September 16, 2021
The objective of this analysis was to investigate the impact of requiring individuals to be vaccinated before entering specific non-essential venues on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
April 23, 2021
We describe the statistical models used to take into account the effect of waning immunity on seroprevalence surveys.
January 8, 2021
IHME’s COVID-19 projections show that a fast vaccine rollout has the potential to save many lives globally. To date, delays in vaccination have occurred in many countries, including the US. Intensified efforts to ensure faster delivery are critical to slow the course of the pandemic in the coming months.
November 24, 2020
Prevent COVID-19 deaths by prioritizing interventions for Hispanic, Latino, and Black populations in the US
Analysis by IHME comparing the risk of dying from COVID-19 by race and ethnicity confirms that Hispanic, Latino, and Black Americans are more likely to die from COVID-19 than non-Hispanic whites.
August 18, 2020
The rate of COVID-19 transmission could be significantly decreased by maintaining social distancing and 95% mask use. Explore a simulation that demonstrates several different scenarios.