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Scientific publications


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Read the research on tuberculosis in Cambodia.
December 3, 2022
Progress towards the 2020 milestones of the end TB strategy in Cambodia: estimates of age and sex specific TB incidence and mortality from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

We aimed to examine the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal TB burden in Cambodia from 1990 to 2019, assessing progress towards the WHO End TB interim milestones, which aim to reduce TB incidence rate by 20% and TB deaths by 35% from 2015 to 2020.

Read the research on child mortality in North Africa and the Middle East.
December 1, 2022
Neonate, infant, and child mortality in North Africa and Middle East by cause: An analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

We report the number as well as mortality rates for neonates, infants, and children by cause across 21 countries in the region since 1990.

Read the research on mortality associated with bacterial pathogens.
November 21, 2022
Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD).

Read the research on expert recommendations to end COVID-19 as a public health threat.
November 3, 2022
A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat
Research Article

The findings of the study include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.

Read the research on macular degeneration in the US.
November 3, 2022
Prevalence of age-related macular degeneration in the US in 2019
Research Article

The estimated prevalence of all AMD remains high, although vision-threatening late stages appear to be level with past estimates; state and county estimates may be used for public health planning.

Read the research on non-communicable diseases in Portuguese-speaking countries.
November 1, 2022
The Burden of Non-communicable Diseases in Portuguese-speaking Countries
Research Article

We analyzed trends in premature mortality from chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) between 1990 and 2019, projections until 2030, and the risk factors attributable to these diseases in the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries. 

Read the research on applications of statistical methods to US census data.
October 26, 2022
Reconstruction of age distributions from differentially private census data
Research Article

The age distribution of a population is important for understanding the demand and provision of labor and services, and as a denominator for calculating key age-specific rates such as fertility and mortality.

Read the research on snake envenoming.
October 25, 2022
Global mortality of snakebite envenoming between 1990 and 2019
Research Article

We used verbal autopsy and vital registration data to model the proportion of venomous animal deaths due to snakes by location, age, year, and sex, and applied these proportions to venomous animal contact mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.

Read the research on benign prostatic hyperplasia.
October 20, 2022
The global, regional, and national burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia in 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated global trends in, and prevalence of, benign prostatic hyperplasia and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to benign prostatic hyperplasia, in 21 regions and 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2019.

Read the research on antimicrobial resistance in Europe.
October 13, 2022
The burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in the WHO European region in 2019: a cross-country systematic analysis
Research Article

This study presents the most comprehensive set of regional and country-level estimates of AMR burden in the WHO European region to date

Read the research on GBD results for Indonesia's provinces.
October 11, 2022
The state of health in Indonesia’s provinces, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

Long-term analyses of disease burden provide insights on Indonesia’s advance to universal health coverage and its ability to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

October 10, 2022
Effects of elevated systolic blood pressure on ischemic heart disease: a Burden of Proof study
Research Article

Using data from published observational studies and controlled trials, we estimated the mean SBP–IHD dose–response function and burden of proof risk function (BPRF), and we calculated a risk outcome score (ROS) and corresponding star rating (one to five).

Read the research on smoking and health outcomes.
October 10, 2022
Health effects associated with smoking: a Burden of Proof study
Research Article

We re-estimated the dose–response relationships between current smoking and 36 health outcomes by conducting systematic reviews up to 31 May 2022, employing a meta-analytic method that incorporates between-study heterogeneity into estimates of uncertainty.

Read the research on long covid.
October 10, 2022
Estimated global proportions of individuals with persistent fatigue, cognitive, and respiratory symptom clusters following symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021
Research Article

Among individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and 2021, what proportion experienced common self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters 3 months after initial infection?

Read the research on red meat consumption and health outcomes.
October 10, 2022
Health effects associated with consumption of unprocessed red meat: a Burden of Proof study
Research Article

We conducted a systematic review and implemented a meta-regression to evaluate the relationships between unprocessed red meat consumption and six potential health outcomes.

Read the research on vegetable consumption and health outcomes.
October 10, 2022
Health effects associated with vegetable consumption: a Burden of Proof study
Research Article

We applied a Bayesian meta-regression tool to estimate the mean risk function and quantify the quality of evidence for associations between vegetable consumption and ischemic heart disease (IHD), ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, type 2 diabetes and esophageal cancer.

October 10, 2022
The Burden of Proof studies: assessing the evidence of risk
Research Article

We present a new suite of meta-analyses—termed the Burden of Proof studies—designed specifically to help evaluate the effects of exposure to risks objectively and quantitatively.

Read the research on health care access and quality.
October 6, 2022
Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

Read the research on household air pollution.
October 1, 2022
Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study
Research Article

We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

Read the research on Tuberculosis in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa
September 16, 2022
Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019
Research Article

This study assesses the time trends of tuberculosis mortality across Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) with an emphasis on HIV status from 1990 to 2019.

maps of Africa showing onchocerciasis prevalence
September 7, 2022
The prevalence of onchocerciasis in Africa and Yemen, 2000–2018: a geospatial analysis
Research Article

Using Bayesian model-based geostatistics, we generated spatially continuous estimates of all-age 2000–2018 onchocerciasis infection prevalence at the 5 × 5-km resolution as well as aggregations to the national level, along with corresponding estimates of the uncertainty in these predictions.

Flow chart of total respiratory health care spending
August 31, 2022
US health care spending on respiratory diseases, 1996-2016
Research Article

We aimed to estimate US health care spending for 11 respiratory conditions from 1996-2016, providing detailed trends and an evaluation of factors associated with spending growth.

Chart of risk-attributable cancer DALYs
August 18, 2022
The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

Chart of lower respiratory infections by risk factors
August 11, 2022
Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

Chart of relative risk from mental illness compared to other causes
August 11, 2022
All-cause and cause-specific mortality among people with severe mental illness in Brazil’s public health system, 2000–15: a retrospective study
Research Article

We aimed to estimate all-cause and cause-specific relative risk (RR) and excess mortality rate (EMR) in a nationwide cohort of inpatients with severe mental illness compared with inpatients without severe mental illness in a middle income country, Brazil.

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