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Scientific publications


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October 15, 2020
Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.

October 15, 2020
Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled.

October 10, 2020
Proportional multistate lifetable modelling of preventive interventions: concepts, code and worked examples
Research Article

This methodology paper explains how proportional multistate lifetable (PMSLT) modelling quantifies intervention impacts, using comparisons between three tobacco control case studies. 

October 5, 2020
Association between firearms and mortality in Brazil, 1990 to 2017: a global burden of disease Brazil study
Research Article

This study aims to analyze trends in and burden of mortality by firearms, according to age and sex, for Brazil, and the association between these deaths and indicators of possession and carrying of weapons using data from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study (GBD) 2017.

October 1, 2020
Health-care spending attributable to modifiable risk factors in the USA: an economic attribution analysis
Research Article

The objective of this study was to quantify health-care spending attributable to modifiable risk factors in the USA for 2016.

September 30, 2020
The burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to high BMI in Brazil, 1990–2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study
Research Article

Using the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) results, this study sought to estimate mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to non-communicable diseases caused by high body mass index (BMI) in both sexes and across age categories. This study also aimed to describe the prevalence of overweight and obesity throughout the states of Brazil.

September 30, 2020
The burden of tuberculosis and attributable risk factors in Brazil, 1990–2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be an important cause of fatal and non-fatal burden in Brazil. In this study, we present estimates for TB burden in Brazil from 1990 to 2017 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017).

September 30, 2020
Changes in the quality of cause-of-death statistics in Brazil: garbage codes among registered deaths in 1996–2016
Research Article

Registered causes in vital statistics classified as garbage codes (GC) are considered indicators of quality of cause-of-death data. Our aim was to describe temporal changes in this quality in Brazil, and the leading GCs according to levels assembled for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.

September 30, 2020
Trends in mortality due to non-communicable diseases in the Brazilian adult population: national and subnational estimates and projections for 2030
Research Article

This study aimed to describe the mortality trends and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to NCDs between 1990 and 2017 for Brazil and to project those for 2030 as well as the risk factors (RFs) attributed deaths according to estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study.

September 30, 2020
The burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil: a global burden of disease study 2017
Research Article

The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017 database permits an up-to-date evaluation of the frequency and burden of diabetes at the state level in Brazil and by type of diabetes. The objective of this report is to describe, using these updated GBD data, the current and projected future burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil, as well as its variation over time and space.

September 30, 2020
Trends in prevalence, mortality, and morbidity associated with high systolic blood pressure in Brazil from 1990 to 2017: estimates from the “Global Burden of Disease 2017” (GBD 2017) study
Research Article

We aimed to describe trends in prevalence and burden of disease attributable to high systolic blood pressure (HSBP) among Brazilians ≥ 25 years old according to sex and federal units (FU) using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.

September 30, 2020
Depressive disorders in Brazil: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

Depression is one of the major causes of disability worldwide. The objective of this study was to analyze the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD-2017) for depressive disorders in Brazil and its Federated Units (FUs) in 1990 and 2017.

September 30, 2020
The burden of disease among Brazilian older adults and the challenge for health policies: results of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

Brazil is the world’s fifth most populous nation, and is currently experimenting a fast demographic aging process in a context of scarce resources and social inequalities. To understand the health profile of older adults in Brazil is fundamental for planning public policies.

September 30, 2020
Monitoring the progress of health-related sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Brazilian states using the Global Burden of Disease indicators
Research Article

Measuring the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) has been the key to verifying the evolution of health indicators worldwide. We analyse subnational GBD data for Brazil in order to monitor the performance of the Brazilian states in the last 28 years on their progress towards meeting the health-related SDGs.

September 30, 2020
Trends in prevalence and mortality burden attributable to smoking, Brazil and federated units, 1990 and 2017
Research Article

The present study sought to analyze smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality estimates produced by the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study for Brazil, 26 states, and the Federal District.

September 30, 2020
Physical inactivity as a risk factor for all-cause mortality in Brazil (1990–2017)
Research Article

The aim of this study was to estimate the mortality from all causes as a result of physical inactivity in Brazil and in Brazilian states over 28 years (1990–2017).

September 30, 2020
Inequalities in the burden of female breast cancer in Brazil, 1990–2017
Research Article

This study aims to evaluate inequalities in the burden of female breast cancer in Brazil including an analysis of interregional and interstate patterns in incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates from 1990 to 2017, and mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR), and their association with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

September 18, 2020
The burden of cardiovascular diseases in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2017: evidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study
Research Article

This systematic analysis estimated the burden of CVDs in Ethiopia using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study data. 

September 10, 2020
Mapping global trends in vaccine confidence and investigating barriers to vaccine uptake: a large-scale retrospective temporal modelling study
Research Article

In this study, vaccine confidence was mapped across 149 countries between 2015 and 2019.

August 27, 2020
Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

August 27, 2020
Predicting the environmental suitability and population at risk of podoconiosis in Africa
Research Article

he geographical distribution and burden of podoconiosis in Africa are uncertain. We applied statistical modelling to the most comprehensive database compiled to date to predict the environmental suitability of podoconiosis in the African continent.

August 26, 2020
Public knowledge of cardiovascular disease and response to acute cardiac events in three municipalities in Brazil
Research Article

We aimed to conduct a landscape assessment of public knowledge of cardiovascular disease risk factors and acute myocardial infarction symptoms, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and automated external defibrillator (AED) awareness and training in three underserved communities in Brazil.

August 19, 2020
Mapping geographic inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low- and middle-income countries, 2000–2017
Research Article

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

August 19, 2020
The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000–2018: a geospatial analysis
Research Article

Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection.

July 29, 2020
Informing Rift Valley Fever preparedness by mapping seasonally varying environmental suitability
Research Article

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) poses a threat to human and animal health throughout much of Africa and the Middle East and has been recognized as a global health security priority and a key preparedness target.

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