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Scientific publications


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April 23, 2020
Health sector spending and spending on HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, and development assistance for health: progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3
Research Article

We used spending estimates to measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG 3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG 3 indicators for which data are available.

April 23, 2020
Tracking total spending on tuberculosis by source and function in 135 low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: a financial modelling study
Research Article

We aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of total spending on tuberculosis in low-income and middle-income countries for 2000–2017.

April 21, 2020
Forecasting the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital demand and deaths for the USA and European Economic Area countries
Research Article

In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic will place a load on health system resources well beyond the current capacity of hospitals in the USA and EEA to manage, especially for ICU care and ventilator use. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity.

April 20, 2020
Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
Research Article

We show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units.

April 15, 2020
Measuring and forecasting progress towards the education-related SDG targets
Research Article

We model the within-country distribution of years of schooling, and use this model to explore educational inequality since 1970 and to forecast progress towards the education-related 2030 SDG targets.

April 15, 2020
Community-based interventions for detection and management of diabetes and hypertension in underserved communities: a mixed-methods evaluation in Brazil, India, South Africa and the USA
Research Article

 As non-communicable disease (NCD) burden rises worldwide, community-based programmes are a promising strategy to bridge gaps in NCD care. The HealthRise programme sought to improve hypertension and diabetes management for underserved communities in nine sites across Brazil, India, South Africa and the USA between 2016 and 2018. This study presents findings from the programme’s endline evaluation.

April 3, 2020
Child and adolescent injury burden in the eastern mediterranean region: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease 1990-2017
Research Article

We aim to assess child and adolescent injury morbidity and mortality and estimate its burden in the Eastern Mediterranean Region based on findings from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries and Risk Factors study 2017.

April 1, 2020
Unintentional injuries in Mexico, 1990–2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

In Mexico, from 1990 to 2017, mortality due to unintentional injuries has decreased, while non-fatal incident cases have increased. However, unintentional injuries continue to cause considerable mortality and morbidity, with patterns that vary by state, age, sex and year.

April 1, 2020
The global, regional, and national burden of oesophageal cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

Updated statistics on the incidence and mortality of oesophageal cancer, and on the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the disease, can assist policy makers in allocating resources for prevention, treatment, and care of oesophageal cancer. 

March 30, 2020
Global, regional, and national burden of calcific aortic valve and degenerative mitral valve diseases, 1990-2017
Research Article

As part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD), degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD), and other NRVD were estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017.

March 26, 2020
Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months
Research Article

Assuming social distancing measures are maintained, what are the forecasted gaps in available health service resources and number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic for each state in the United States?

March 24, 2020
Epidemiological data from the COVID-19 outbreak, real-time case information
Research Article

We collected data on the following: (a) Key dates, which include the date of onset of disease, date of admission to hospital, date of confirmation of infection, and dates of travel. (b) Demographic information about the age and sex of patients/cases. (c) Geographic information, at the highest resolution available down to the district level. 

March 18, 2020
Early warning signals of malaria resurgence in Kericho, Kenya
Research Article

Time series of disease incidence collected through ordinary surveillance activities may exhibit characteristic signatures prior to an outbreak, a phenomenon that may be quite general among infectious disease systems.

March 16, 2020
Access and use of oxytocin for postpartum haemorrhage prevention: a pre-post study targeting the poorest in six Mesoamerican countries
Research Article

Haemorrhage remains the leading cause of maternal mortality in Central America. The Salud Mesoamérica Initiative aims to reduce such mortality via performance indicators. Our objective was to assess the availability and administration of oxytocin, before and after applying Salud Mesoamérica Initiative interventions in the poorest health facilities across Central America.

March 13, 2020
Global trends of hand and wrist trauma: a systematic analysis of fracture and digit amputation using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study
Research Article

 Low-middle and middle SDI countries have demonstrated increasing rates of fracture and amputation over the last 27 years. This trend is concerning as access to quality and subspecialised surgical hand care is often limiting in these resource-limited regions.

March 13, 2020
The global, regional, and national burden of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

The stability of our global age-standardised prevalence estimates over time suggests that the epidemiology of the disease has not changed, but the estimates of all-age prevalence and YLDs, which increased between 1990 and 2017, suggest that the burden of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease is nonetheless increasing as a result of ageing and population growth.

March 3, 2020
US health care spending by payer and health condition, 1996–2016
Research Article

This study shows national spending estimates stratified by health condition, age group, sex, type of care, and payer and modeled for each year from 1996 through 2016.

March 2, 2020
Global, Regional, and National Levels and Trends in Burden of Oral Conditions from 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study
Research Article

The aim of this component of the Global Burden of Disease study was to produce estimates on prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability for oral conditions from 1990 to 2017 by sex, age, and countries.

March 2, 2020
Changes in disease burden in Poland between 1990–2017 in comparison with other Central European countries: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

Health in Poland has been improving since 1990; in 2017 Poland outperformed Central Europe as a whole for YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs.

February 29, 2020
Assessing multidimensional care coverage for pre‐eclampsia in the era of universal health coverage: A pre–post evaluation of the Salud Mesoamérica Initiative
Research Article

Multidimensional care for pre‐eclampsia management increased across all facility types, countries, and severity of disease. The Salud Mesoamérica Initiative is a promising model for achieving such quality of care interventions in the era of universal health coverage.

February 28, 2020
Falls in older aged adults in 22 European countries: incidence, mortality and burden of disease from 1990 to 2017
Research Article

From 1990 to 2017, there was considerable variation in fall-related injury incidence, mortality, DALY rates and its composites in the 22 countries in the Western European region.

February 24, 2020
Burden of disease in francophone Africa, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Research Article

Francophone Africa still carries a high burden of communicable and neonatal diseases, probably due to the weakness of health-care systems and services, as evidenced by the almost complete attribution of DALYs to YLLs.

February 20, 2020
The burden of unintentional drowning: global, regional and national estimates of mortality from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study
Research Article

This study’s objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017.

February 19, 2020
The disease burden attributable to 18 occupational risks in China: an analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017
Research Article

We aimed to estimate the burden of disease attributable to occupational exposures at provincial levels from 1990 to 2017.

February 13, 2020
Global and regional burden of cancer in 2016 arising from occupational exposure to selected carcinogens: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Research Article

This study provides a detailed analysis of the global and regional burden of cancer due to occupational carcinogens from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study.

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