We provide a publicly available dataset and evaluation framework for assessing the predictive validity of COVID-19 mortality forecasts.
July 14, 2020
July 14, 2020
We use a deterministic, Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) compartmental framework to model possible trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the impact of NPI at the state level.
May 15, 2020
Low-income countries have reduced health care system capacity and are therefore at risk of substantially higher COVID-19 case fatality rates than those currently seen in high-income countries. Handwashing is a key component of guidance to reduce transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic.
April 21, 2020
Forecasting the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital demand and deaths for the USA and European Economic Area countries
In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic will place a load on health system resources well beyond the current capacity of hospitals in the USA and EEA to manage, especially for ICU care and ventilator use. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity.
March 26, 2020
Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months
Assuming social distancing measures are maintained, what are the forecasted gaps in available health service resources and number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic for each state in the United States?
March 24, 2020
We collected data on the following: (a) Key dates, which include the date of onset of disease, date of admission to hospital, date of confirmation of infection, and dates of travel. (b) Demographic information about the age and sex of patients/cases. (c) Geographic information, at the highest resolution available down to the district level.