Eleanor Roosevelt said, “Life is like a parachute jump; you’ve got to get it right the first time.” With a spate of Covid-19 vaccines on the horizon, we must prepare to jump.
December 10, 2020
October 23, 2020
We use COVID-19 case and mortality data from 1 February 2020 to 21 September 2020 and a deterministic SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered) compartmental framework to model possible trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the United States at the state level from 22 September 2020 through 28 February 2021.
September 10, 2020
Mapping global trends in vaccine confidence and investigating barriers to vaccine uptake: a large-scale retrospective temporal modelling study
In this study, vaccine confidence was mapped across 149 countries between 2015 and 2019.
August 10, 2020
In this Comment, we use the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic to explore some of the ways in which digital public health can transform the public health response. Through this exploration, we hope to highlight the broader potential for digital public health in making public health prevention, surveillance, and responses more effective across a wide range of challenges.
July 14, 2020
We provide a publicly available dataset and evaluation framework for assessing the predictive validity of COVID-19 mortality forecasts.
May 15, 2020
Low-income countries have reduced health care system capacity and are therefore at risk of substantially higher COVID-19 case fatality rates than those currently seen in high-income countries. Handwashing is a key component of guidance to reduce transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic.
April 21, 2020
Forecasting the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital demand and deaths for the USA and European Economic Area countries
In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic will place a load on health system resources well beyond the current capacity of hospitals in the USA and EEA to manage, especially for ICU care and ventilator use. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity.
March 26, 2020
Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months
Assuming social distancing measures are maintained, what are the forecasted gaps in available health service resources and number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic for each state in the United States?
March 24, 2020
We collected data on the following: (a) Key dates, which include the date of onset of disease, date of admission to hospital, date of confirmation of infection, and dates of travel. (b) Demographic information about the age and sex of patients/cases. (c) Geographic information, at the highest resolution available down to the district level.