Biography
Abraham Flaxman, PhD, is an Associate Professor of Health Metrics Sciences at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. He is currently leading the development of a simulation platform to derive “what-if” results from Global Burden of Disease estimates and is engaged in methodological and operational research on verbal autopsy. Dr. Flaxman has previously designed software tools such as DisMod-MR that IHME uses to estimate the Global Burden of Disease, and the Bednet Stock-and-Flow Model, which has produced estimates of insecticide-treated net coverage in sub-Saharan Africa. This work uses Integrative Systems Modeling to combine a system dynamics model of process with a statistical model of data to bring together all available sources of information.
Prior to being named associate professor, Dr. Flaxman was an assistant professor at IHME, a Post-Graduate Fellow at IHME, and before that he was a post-doctoral fellow at Microsoft Research.
Originally from Evanston, IL, Dr. Flaxman earned his BS in Mathematics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He earned his PhD in Algorithms, Combinatorics, and Optimization from Carnegie Mellon University in 2006.
Dr. Flaxman has written his popular blog, http://healthyalgorithms.com, since 2008. His posts cover mathematics, computer science, and his research at IHME.
IHME was established at the University of Washington in Seattle in 2007. Its mission is to deliver to the world timely, relevant, and scientifically valid evidence to improve health policy and practice.
Bollyky TJ, Castro E, Aravkin AY, et al. Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis. The Lancet. 23 March 2023. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00461-0.
Rein DB, Wittenborn JS, Burke-Conte Z, et al. Prevalence of age-related macular degeneration in the US in 2019. JAMA Ophthalmology. 3 November 2022. doi: 10.1001/jamaophthalmol.2022.4401.
Dyrting S, Flaxman A, Sharygin E. Reconstruction of age distributions from differentially private census data. Population Research and Policy Review. 26 October 2022. doi:10.1007/s11113-022-09734-2.
Global Burden of Disease Long COVID Collaborators. Estimated global proportions of individuals with persistent fatigue, cognitive, and respiratory symptom clusters following symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021. JAMA. 10 October 2022. doi: 10.1001/jama.2022.18931.
Lundeen EA, Flaxman AD, Wittenborn JS, et al. County-level variation in the prevalence of visual acuity loss or blindness in the US. JAMA Ophthalmology. 7 July 2022. doi:10.1001/jamaophthalmol.2022.2405.
Flaxman AD, Issema R, et al. Estimated health outcomes and costs of COVID-19 prophylaxis with monoclonal antibodies among unvaccinated household contacts in the US. JAMA Network Open. 22 April 2022. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.8632.
COVID-19 Cumulative Infection Collaborators. Estimating global, regional, and national daily and cumulative infections with SARS-CoV-2 through Nov 14, 2021: a statistical analysis. The Lancet. 8 April 2022. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00484-6.
Kannan A, Tsoi D, Xie Y, Horst C, Collins J, Flaxman A (2022) Cost-effectiveness of Vitamin A supplementation among children in three sub-Saharan African countries: An individual-based simulation model using estimates from Global Burden of Disease 2019. PLoS ONE 17(4): e0266495. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266495
COVID-19 Forecasting Team. Variation in the COVID-19 infection–fatality ratio by age, time, and geography during the pre-vaccine era: a systematic analysis. The Lancet. 24 February 2022. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02867-1.
Young N, Bowman A, Swedin K, Collins J, Blair-Stahn ND, Lindstedt PA, Troeger C, Flaxman AD. Cost-effectiveness of antenatal multiple micronutrients and balanced energy protein supplementation compared to iron and folic acid supplementation in India, Pakistan, Mali, and Tanzania: A dynamic microsimulation study. PLOS Medicine. 22 February 2022. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003902.
Hernandez, B., Rodriguez Angulo, E., Johnson, L.M. et al. Assessment of the quality of the vital registration system for under-5 mortality in Yucatan, Mexico. Popul Health Metrics 20, 7 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-022-00284-5.
COVID-19 National Preparedness Collaborators. Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021. The Lancet. 1 February 2022. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00172-6.
Ross JM, Xie Y, Wang Y, Collins JK, Horst C, Doody JB, Lindstedt P, Ledesma JR, Shapiro AE, Hay SI, Kyu HH, Flaxman AD. Estimating the population at high risk for tuberculosis through household exposure in high-incidence countries: a model-based analysis. EClinicalMedicine. 21 November 2022. doi:10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.101206.
Hernández-Prado B, Rodríguez-Angulo EM, Palmisano EB, Ojeda-Rodríguez R, Ojeda-Baranda RJ, Andueza-Pecha MG, Johnson LM, Chen A, Johanns C, Marquez N, Kamath AM, Camarda JN, Flaxman AD. Factors associated with delays in the search for care in under-5 deaths in Yucatán, Mexico. Salud Publica de Mexico. 20 May 2021. doi: 10.21149/12216.
Flaxman AD, Wittenborn JS, Robalik T, Gulia R, Gerzoff RB, Lundeen EA, Saaddine J, Rein DB. Prevalence of Visual Acuity Loss or Blindness in the US. JAMA Ophthalmology. 13 May 2021. doi: 10.1001/jamaophthalmol.2021.0527.
IHME COVID-19 Forecasting Team. Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States. Nature Medicine. 23 October 2020. doi:10.1038/s41591-020-1132-9.
Blakely T, Moss R, Collins J, Mizdrak A, Singh A, Carvalho N, Wilson N, Geard N, Flaxman A. Proportional multistate lifetable modelling of preventive interventions: concepts, code and worked examples. International Journal of Epidemiology. 10 October 2020. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyaa132.
Dieleman JL, Cao J, Chapin A, Chen C, Li Z, Liu A, Horst C, Kaldjian A, Matyasz T, Scott KW, Bui AL, Campbell M, Duber HC, Dunn AC, Flaxman AD, Fitzmaurice C, Naghavi M, Sadat N, Shieh P, Squires E, Yeung K, Murray CJL. US Health Care Spending by Payer and Health Condition, 1996–2016. JAMA. 3 March 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.0734.
Charlson F, van Ommeren M, Flaxman A, Cornett J, Whiteford H, Saxena S. New WHO prevalence estimates of mental disorders in conflict settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis. The Lancet. 11 Jun 2019. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30934-1.
Moses MW, Pedroza P, Baral R, et al. Funding and services needed to achieve universal health coverage: applications of global, regional, and national estimates of utilisation of outpatient visits and inpatient admissions from 1990 to 2016, and unit costs from 1995 to 2016. The Lancet Public Health. 11 Dec 2018. doi:10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30263-9.
GBD 2016 Healthcare Access and Quality Collaborators. Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet. 23 May 2018.
Flaxman AD, Joseph JC, Murray CJL, Riley ID, Lopez AD. Performance of InSilicoVA for assigning causes of death to verbal autopsies: multisite validation study using clinical diagnostic gold standards. BMC Medicine. 19 Apr 2018; 16:56. doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-018-1039-1
Golding N, Burstein R, Longbottom J, et al. Mapping under-5 and neonatal mortality in Africa, 2000–15: a baseline analysis for the Sustainable Development Goals. The Lancet
GBD 2016 DALYs and HALE Collaborators. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet. 14 Sept 2017: 390;1260-344.
GBD 2016 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet. 14 Sept 2017: 390; 1211–59.
GBD 2016 Risk Factors Collaborators. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet. 14 Sept 2017: 390;1345-1422.
GBD 2016 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet. 14 Sept 2017: 390;1151–210.
GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet. 12 Sept 2017: 390; 1423–59.
Dwyer-Lindgren L, Stubbs RW, Bertozzi-Villa A, Morozoff C, Callender C, Finegold SB, Shirude S, Flaxman AD, Laurent A, Kern E, Duchin JS, Fleming D, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL. Variation in life expectancy and mortality by cause among neighborhoods in King County, WA, USA, 1990–2014: a census tract-level analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet Public Health. 5 Sept 2017.
Dieleman JL, Baral R, Birger M, et al. US spending on personal health care and public health, 1996–2013. JAMA. 2016 Dec 17.
Dwyer-Lindgren L, Bertozzi-Villa A, Stubbs RW, Morozoff C, Kutz MJ, Huynh C, Barber RM, Shackelford KA, Mackenbach JP, van Lenthe FJ, Flaxman AD, Naghavi M, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL. US county-level trends in mortality rates for major causes of death, 1980–2014. JAMA. 2016 Dec. doi: 10.1001/jama.2016.13645.
GBD 2015 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. The Lancet. 2016 Oct 7; 388:1459–1544.
Dwyer-Lindgren L, Mackenbach JP, van Lenthe FJ, Flaxman AD, Mokdad AH. Diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes prevalence by county in the US, 1999–2012. Diabetes Care. 2016 August 23; 39:1556–1562. doi: 10.2337/dc16-0678.
Di Giorgio L, Moses MW, Fullman N, et al. The potential to expand antiretroviral therapy by improving health facility efficiency: evidence from Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia. BMC Medicine. 2016 20 July. doi: 10.1186/s12916-016-0653-z.
Di Giorgio L, Flaxman AD, Moses MW, Fullman N, Hanlon M, Conner RO, Wollum A, Murray CJL. Efficiency of health care production in low-resource settings: a Monte-Carlo simulation to compare the performance of Data Envelopment Analysis, Stochastic Distance Functions, and an ensemble model. PLOS ONE. 2016 Jan 26. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0147261.
Serina P, Riley I, Stewart A, et al. A shortened verbal autopsy instrument for use in routine mortality surveillance systems. BMC Medicine. 2015 Dec 16; 13:302. doi:10.1186/s12916-015-0528-8.
Serina P, Riley I, Stewart A, et al. Improving performance of the Tariff Method for assigning causes of death to verbal autopsies. BMC Medicine. 2015 Dec 8; 13:291. doi: 10.1186/s12916-015-0527-9.
Benziger CP, Stout K, Zaragoza-Macias E, Bertozzi-Villa A, Flaxman AD. Projected growth of the adult congenital heart disease population in the United States to 2050: an integrative systems modeling approach. Population Health Metrics. 2015 Oct 15; 13:29. doi: 10.1186/s12963-015-0063-z.
Flaxman AD, Serina PT, Hernandez B, Murray CJL, Riley I, Lopez A. Measuring causes of death in populations: a new metric that corrects cause-specific mortality fractions for chance. Population Health Metrics. 2015 Oct 12; 13:28. doi:10.1186/s12963-015-0061-1.
Forouzanfar MH, Alexander L, Anderson HR, et al. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioral, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. The Lancet. 2015 Sep 11. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61455-6.
Murray CJL, Barber RM, Foreman KJ, et al. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition. The Lancet. 2015 Aug 27. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61340-X.
Thomas B, Wulf S, Bikbov B, Perico N, Cortinovis M, de Vaccaro KC, Flaxman A, Peterson H, Delossantos A, Haring D, Mehrotra R, Himmelfarb J, Remuzzi G, Murray C, Naghavi M. Maintenance dialysis throughout the world in years 1990 and 2010. Journal of the American Society of Nephrology. 2015 Jul 24. doi: 10.1681/ASN.2014101017.
Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. The Lancet. 2015 June 8. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60692-4.
Dwyer-Lindgren L, Flaxman AD, Ng M, Hansen GM, Murray CJL, Mokdad AH. Drinking patterns in US counties from 2002 to 2012. American Journal of Public Health. 2015 April 23; e1-e8. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2014.302313.
James SL, Romero M, Ramírez-Villalobos D, Gómez S, Pierce K, Flaxman A, Serina P, Stewart A, Murray CJL, Gakidou E, Lozano R, Hernandez B. Validating estimates of prevalence of non-communicable diseases based on household surveys: the symptomatic diagnosis study. BMC Medicine. 2015 Jan 26; 13:15. doi:10.1186/s12916-014-0245-8.
Dwyer-Lindgren L, Kakungu F, Hangoma P, Ng M, Wang H, Flaxman AD, Masiye F, Gakidou E. Estimation of district-level under-5 mortality in Zambia using birth history data, 1980–2010. Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology. 2014 Oct;11: 89-107. doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2014.09.002.
Ng M, Fullman N, Dieleman JL, Flaxman AD, Murray CJL, Lim SS. Effective coverage: a metric for monitoring universal health coverage. PLoS Medicine. 2014 Sept 22. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001730.
Murray CJL, Ortblad KF, Guinovart C, et al. Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. The Lancet. 2014 July 23. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8.
Ng M, Fleming T, Robinson M, et al. Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. The Lancet. 2014 May. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60460-8.
Fullman N, Flaxman A, Leach-Kemon K, Rajaratnam JK, Lozano R. Measuring the world’s health: How good are our estimates? In: Brown GW, Yamey G, Wamala S, eds. The Handbook of Global Health Policy. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2014: 97–117.
Dwyer-Lindgren L, Mokdad AH, Srebotnjak T, Flaxman AD, Hansen GM, Murray CJL. Cigarette smoking prevalence in US counties: 1996-2012. Population Health Metrics. 2014.
Moran AE, Forouzanfar MH, Roth G, Mensah GA, Ezzati M, Flaxman A, Murray CJL, Naghavi M. The global burden of ischemic heart disease in 1990 and 2010: the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study. Circulation. 2014 Feb 26. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.113.004046.
Murray CJL, Lozano R, Flaxman AD, et al. Using verbal autopsy to measure causes of death: the comparative performance of existing methods. BMC Medicine. 2014 Jan 9; 12(5). doi:10.1186/1741-7015-12-5
Whiteford HA, Degenhardt L, Rehm J, Baxter AJ, Ferrari AJ, Erskine HE, Charlson FJ, Norman RE, Flaxman AD, Johns N, Burstein R, Murray CJL, Vos T. Global burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet. 2013 Nov 9; 382:1575-1586. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61611-6.
Hagopian, A, Flaxman AD, Takaro TK, Esa Al Shatari SA, Rajaratnam J, Becker S, Levin-Rector A, Galway L, Hadi Al-Yasseri BJ, Weiss WM, Murray CJ, Burnham G. Mortality in Iraq associated with the 2003-2011 war and occupation: Findings from a national cluster sample survey by the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study. PLOS Medicine. 2013 Oct; (10)10: e1001533. DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001533.
Degenhardt L, Whiteford HA, Ferrari AJ, Baxter AJ, Charlson FJ, Hall WD, Freedman G, Burstein R, Johns N, Engell RE, Flaxman A, Murray CJL, Vos T. Global burden of disease attributable to illicit drug use and dependence: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet. 2013 Aug 29. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61530-5.
Dwyer-Lindgren L, Gakidou E, Flaxman A, Wang H. Error and bias in under-5 mortality estimates derived from birth histories with small sample sizes. Population Health Metrics. 2013; 11:13.
Murray CJL, Abraham J, Ali MK, et al. The state of US health, 1990-2010: burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors [published online July 10, 2013]. Journal of the American Medical Association. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2013.13805.
Marcenes W, Kassebaum NJ, Bernabé E, Flaxman A, Naghavi M, Lopez A, Murray CJL. Global burden of oral conditions in 1990-2010: a systematic analysis. Journal of Dental Research. 2013 May 29; 92(7): 592-597. doi: 10.1177/0022034513490168.
Murray CJL, Richards MAR, Newton JN ,et al. UK health performance: findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet.2013 March 5; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(13)60355-4.
Salomon JA, Wang H, Freeman MK, Vos T, Flaxman AD, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Healthy life expectancy for 187 countries, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden Disease Study 2010. The Lancet. 2012 Dec 13; 380: 2144–2162.
Salomon JA, Vos T, Hogan DR, Gagnon M, et al. Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet. 2012 Dec 13; 380: 2129–2143.
Murray CJL, Vos T, Lozano R, et al. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet. 2012 Dec 13; 380: 2197–2223.
Lozano R, Naghavi M, Foreman K, et al. Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet. 2012 Dec 13; 380: 2095–2128.
Lim SS, Vos T, Flaxman AD, et al. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet. 2012 Dec 13; 380: 2224–2260.
Vos T, Flaxman AD, Naghavi M, et al. Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet. 2012 Dec 13; 380: 2163–2196.
Murray CJL, Lopez AD, Black R, et al. Population Health Metrics Research Consortium gold standard verbal autopsy validation study: design, implementation, and development of analysis datasets. Population Health Metrics. 2011; 9:27.
James SL, Flaxman AD, Murray CJL, the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). Performance of the Tariff Method: validation of a simple additive algorithm for analysis of verbal autopsies. Population Health Metrics. 2011; 9:31.
Murray CJL, Lozano R, Flaxman AD, Vahdatpour A, Lopez AD. Robust metrics for assessing the performance of different verbal autopsy cause assignment methods in validation studies. Population Health Metrics. 2011; 9:28.
Flaxman AD, Vahdatpour A, Green S, James SL, Murray CJL, the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). Random Forests for verbal autopsy analysis: multisite validation study using clinical diagnostic gold standards. Population Health Metrics. 2011; 9:29.
Lozano R, Freeman MK, James SL, Campbell B, Lopez AD, Flaxman AD, Murray CJL, the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). Performance of InterVA for assigning causes of death to verbal autopsies: multisite validation study using clinical diagnostic gold standards. Population Health Metrics. 2011; 9:50.
Flaxman AD, Vahdatpour A, James SL, Birnbaum JK, Murray CJL, and the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). Direct estimation of cause-specific mortality fractions from verbal autopsies: multisite validation study using clinical diagnostic gold standards. Population Health Metrics. 2011; 9:35.
Lozano R, Lopez AD, Atkinson C, Naghavi M, Flaxman AD, Murray CJL, the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). Performance of physician-certified verbal autopsies: multisite validation study using clinical diagnostic gold standards. Population Health Metrics. 2011; 9:32.
Flaxman AD, Fullman N, Otten MW Jr., Menon M, Cibulskis RE, Ng M, Murray CJL, Lim SS. Rapid scaling-up of insecticide-treated bed net coverage in Africa and its relationship with development assistance for health: A systematic synthesis of supply, distribution, and household survey data. PLoS Medicine. 2010 August 17; 7(8): e1000328.
Rajaratnam JK, Marcus JR, Flaxman AD, Wang H, Levin-Rector A, Dwyer L, Costa M, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Neonatal, postneonatal, childhood, and under-5 mortality for 187 countries, 1970–2010: a systematic analysis of progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4. The Lancet. 2010 May 24; 375:1988–2008.
