Correction in Uncertainty Intervals for Cumulative COVID-19 Death Forecasts in Europe
April 7, 2020
Correction in Uncertainty Intervals for
Cumulative COVID-19 Death Forecasts in Europe
An unintentional upload error to our data visualization tool has resulted in IHME issuing incorrect ranges of cumulative deaths in Europe related to COVID-19 in an April 6 press release and on its website. Specifically, the error was associated with the range of possible numbers of cumulative deaths over the course of the pandemic – from the Institute’s lowest expected number of cumulative deaths, the “mean” or likely number of potential deaths, and the highest number of cumulative deaths. The figures in the visualization for the range of daily deaths, hospitalizations, ICU bed-days, and ventilator need are correct. IHME regrets the data upload error.
The projected deaths below provide the correct ranges. IHME will continue to update hospital usage, ventilator usage, and projected deaths on a daily basis.
Upcoming forecasts will reflect our corrected approach. Please visit healthdata.org for information.