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Correction in Uncertainty Intervals for Cumulative COVID-19 Death Forecasts in Europe

Published April 7, 2020

Correction in Uncertainty Intervals for

Cumulative COVID-19 Death Forecasts in Europe

 

An unintentional upload error to our data visualization tool has resulted in IHME issuing incorrect ranges of cumulative deaths in Europe related to COVID-19 in an April 6 press release and on its website. Specifically, the error was associated with the range of possible numbers of cumulative deaths over the course of the pandemic – from the Institute’s lowest expected number of cumulative deaths, the “mean” or likely number of potential deaths, and the highest number of cumulative deaths. The figures in the visualization for the range of daily deaths, hospitalizations, ICU bed-days, and ventilator need are correct. IHME regrets the data upload error.

The projected deaths below provide the correct ranges. IHME will continue to update hospital usage, ventilator usage, and projected deaths on a daily basis.

Upcoming forecasts will reflect our corrected approach. Please visit healthdata.org for information.

 

Location

Mean

Lower

Upper

Austria

385

238

770

Belgium

3,546

2024

6,232

Bulgaria

303

79

1,146

Croatia

166

49

854

Cyprus

54

16

131

Czechia

411

120

1,704

Denmark

529

242

1,279

Estonia

484

51

2,071

Finland

225

56

721

France

15,058

9,401

27,727

Germany

8,802

2,255

23,727

Greece

457

155

1,141

Hungary

477

104

1,686

Ireland

401

208

626

Italy

20,300

18,531

22,824

Latvia

125

6

858

Lithuania

104

27

445

Luxembourg

69

41

191

Malta

19

1

112

Netherlands

5,808

2,358

19,173

Norway

669

164

1,104

Poland

1953

392

6,504

Portugal

471

348

765

Romania

804

267

2,541

Slovakia

251

13

2015

Slovenia

104

43

424

Spain

19,209

14,605

30,616

Sweden

4,182

801

4,724

United Kingdom

66,314

14,573

219,211

 

Contact: [email protected] 

For Italy: 

For Spain: Andrea Joseph, [email protected], +54 91159790368 

 

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