New IHME COVID-19 forecasts show deaths in Mexico exceeding 50,000

Mexico City at epicenter with 7,000-plus estimated deaths through August 4; projections for all 32 states 

‘Explosive growth’ in predicted deaths

 

SEATTLE (June 8) – New forecasts from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington find COVID-19 deaths in Mexico exceeding 50,000 through early August and beyond, a more than six-fold increase from the Institute’s previous forecast, on May 12, of nearly 7,000 deaths.

The analysis now includes projections for all of Mexico’s 32 federated states, including Mexico City, where expected deaths now total 7,435, an increase of 4,021 from IHME’s earlier estimate. Today’s forecast of deaths in the State of Mexico totals 3,700, an increase of 3,156 from the previous forecast.

“Since IHME’s last forecast, Mexico has seen explosive growth of the coronavirus and must enforce existing mandates and measures, as well as increase testing to slow a fast-moving epidemic and reduce transmission of the virus,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. “Our model, which extends to August 4, currently does not project any peak or decline in deaths.”

IHME’s new forecasting model now incorporates an expanded set of predictors, such as mask use, past patterns of pneumonia deaths by week, and cases adjusted for the rate of testing, hospitalizations, and deaths. The Institute’s projections will change as new data are acquired and analyzed. Today’s announcement adds Mexico’s remaining 25 states to the Institute’s May 12 analysis of seven states. Fluctuations in estimates are to be expected.

The Institute’s analysis concludes there will be 51,912 deaths in Mexico by August 4, with a possible range as low as 37,397 and as high as 75,516.

By way of comparison, here are today’s death projections, as compared to those announced on May 12:

• Baja California: 1,988 deaths (estimate range of 1,491 to 2,763), up from estimate of 1,171 on May 12
• State of Mexico: 3,700 deaths (estimate range of 2,646 to 5,344), up from estimate of 544 on May 12
• Mexico City: 7,435 deaths (estimate range of 5,808 to 9,692), up from estimate of 3,414 on May 12
• Puebla: 1,979 deaths (estimate range of 1,243 to 3,271), up from estimate of 312 on May 12
• Quintana Roo: 816 deaths (estimate range of 668 to 1,037), up from estimate of 465 on May 12
• Sinaloa: 2,831 deaths (estimate range of 1,828 to 4,503), up from estimate of 292 on May 12
• Tabasco: 1,726 deaths (estimate range of 1,339 to 2,304), up from estimate of 660 on May 12

New forecasts of deaths among states added to today’s announcement are:

• Aguascalientes: 335 (estimate range of 45 to 1,878)
• Baja California Sur: 94 (estimate range of 48 to 245) 
• Campeche: 766 (estimate range of 384 to 1,454) 
• Chiapas: 1,389 (estimate range of 609 to 3,219) 
• Chihuahua: 1,304 (estimate range of 839 to 2,123) 
• Coahuila: 783 (estimate range of 337 to 1,857) 
• Colima: 687 (estimate range of 38 to 2,894) 
• Durango: 1,875 (estimate range of 192 to 5,847) 
• Guanajuato; 2,494 (estimate range of 753 to 7,585) 
• Guerrero: 1,083 (estimate range of 721 to 1,744) 
• Hidalgo: 1,815 (estimate range of 1,166 to 2,885) 
• Jalisco: 1,480 (estimate range of 702 to 3,411) 
• Michoacán: 1,404 (estimate range of 646 to 3,110) 
• Morelos: 734 (estimate range of 512 to 1,186)
• Nayarit: 1,388 (estimate range of 544 to 3,075) 
• Nuevo León: 946 (estimate range of 359 to 2,536) 
• Oaxaca: 1,330 (estimate range of 645 to 3,045)
• Querétaro: 577 (estimate range of 294 to 1,253)
• San Luis Potosí: 1,232 (estimate range of 159 to 4,887)
• Sonora: 775 (estimate range of 469 to 1,405)
• Tamaulipas: 1,268 (estimate range of 515 to 3,019)
• Tlaxcala: 408 (estimate range of 260 to 706)
• Veracruz: 5,840 (estimate range of 2,938 to 12,213)
• Yucatán: 875 (estimate range of 532 to 1,395)
• Zacatecas: 557(estimate range of 156 to 1,864)

IHME acknowledges the forecasts are possible because of daily updates from the government of Mexico.

The national government instituted a nationwide stay-at-home order on April 12, but since June 1, under the “New Normal” plan, it has been easing restrictions, including: 

• Lifting nationwide social distancing 
• Reopening mining, construction, auto, and tourism industries 
• Reopening parks to 25% capacity
• Limiting hotels to 25% capacity
• Limiting grocery stores to 50% capacity

Murray noted that IHME’s revised model captures surveys on mask usage, as well as mobility, testing capacity, and contact tracing.

“Our model is the basis for the sobering estimate of these deaths in Mexico,” Murray said. “We are seeking to inform decisions about mandating social distancing policies to minimize the risk of infections. As with all our forecasts, these will be routinely updated and new data added as available.”  

The new death projections and other information, such as hospital resources usage, are available at https://covid19.healthdata.org/mexico.

Contact: [email protected]

IHME is grateful to the Microsoft AI for Health program for supporting our hosting of COVID-19 data visualizations in the Azure cloud. 

About the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME is committed to transparency and makes this information widely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions on allocating resources to improve population health.