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Nonoptimal temperature — Level 2 risk


Summary Non-optimal temperature was the 11th-leading Level 2 risk factor for deaths, contributing to 1·96 million (95% UI 1·71–2·21) deaths in 2019. Major contributing causes were cardiovascular disease, COPD, and lower respiratory infections.

Definition Non-optimal temperature is an aggregate of the burden attributable to low and high temperatures. Heat and cold effects relate to effects above and below the TMREL. The population-weighted mean TMREL is 25·6°C.

Total sources
Exposure 203
Relative risk 112
Table 1: Total sources used in GBD 2019 estimation
What is new in GBD 2019?
  • •Non-optimal temperature is a new risk factor in GBD 2019.
  • •Relationships between daily temperature from ERA5 reanalysis dataset and cause-specific mortality (GBD Level 3) were modelled using vital registration data on 58·9 million deaths from eight countries and 15 197 administrative units.
  • •The association between daily temperature and cause-specific mortality was modelled using MR-BRT, with 2D splines that allowed these associations to vary by mean temperature zone.
  • •Causes were selected if 30% of mean temperature zones had consecutively significant relative risks spanning at least 5% of the temperature range. TMRELs were estimated as the temperatures with the lowest mortality risk for each location and year.
Deaths
YLLs
YLDs
DALYs
Number
(millions)
Rate (per
100 000)
Number
(millions)
Rate (per
100 000)
Number
(millions)
Rate (per
100 000)
Number
(millions)
Rate (per
100 000)
2019
Both Sexes
1·96 (1·71
to 2·21)
25·7 (22·4
to 29·2)
37·6 (32·4
to 44·3)
482·2 (413·7
to 582·3)
-–
-–
37·6 (32·4
to 44·3)
482·2 (413·7
to 582·3)
Females
0·946 (0·812
to 1·09)
21·8 (18·7
to 25·1)
17·0 (14·7
to 20·0)
411·3 (353·3
to 496·4)
-–
-–
17·0 (14·7
to 20·0)
411·3 (353·3
to 496·4)
Males
1·01 (0·880
to 1·15)
30·5 (26·7
to 34·6)
20·6 (17·5
to 24·6)
565·8 (482·6
to 676·7)
-–
-–
20·6 (17·5
to 24·6)
565·8 (482·6
to 676·7)
Percentage change 2010-19
Both Sexes
12·0% (6·0
to 18·1)
–15·3% (–19·5
to –10·8)
1·2% (–8·0
to 9·1)
–18·8% (–25·0
to –13·2)
-–
-–
1·2% (–8·0
to 9·1)
–18·8% (–25·0
to –13·2)
Females
11·0% (3·6
to 18·5)
–16·1% (–21·3
to –10·6)
–1·0% (–10·2
to 7·9)
–20·2% (–27·0
to –13·6)
-–
-–
–1·0% (–10·2
to 7·9)
–20·2% (–27·0
to –13·6)
Males
13·0% (5·2
to 21·3)
–14·9% (–20·2
to –9·4)
3·0% (–6·8
to 12·4)
–17·7% (–24·0
to –11·3)
-–
-–
3·0% (–6·8
to 12·4)
–17·7% (–24·0
to –11·3)
Numbers in parentheses are 95% uncertainty intervals.
Table 2: Attributable global deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs in counts and age-standardised rates for both sexes combined, females, and males, 2019, with percentage change between 2010 and 2019
Deaths YLLs YLDs DALYs
1990 12th 11th -- 13th
2010 12th 13th -- 14th
2019 11th 13th -- 14th
Table 3: Rank among attributable Level 2 risks of global deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs in 1990, 2010, and 2019 for both sexes combined
Figure 1: Composition of attributable global DALYs by constituent Level 2 causes for both sexes combined, 2019
Figure 2: Composition of attributable global DALYs by YLLs and YLDs, age group, and sex, 2019
No Legend
Figure 3: Age-standardised all-cause SEV by location, both sexes combined, 2019
No Legend
Figure 4: Percentage change in all-cause age-standardised SEV by SDI, both sexes combined, 1990–2019
Figure 5: Percentage of population exposed to risk factor, both sexes combined, 2019
Figure 6: All-cause mortality relative risk, both sexes combined, 2019

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