Summary Non-optimal temperature was the 11th-leading Level 2 risk factor for deaths, contributing to 1·96 million (95% UI 1·71–2·21) deaths in 2019. Major contributing causes were cardiovascular disease, COPD, and lower respiratory infections.
Definition Non-optimal temperature is an aggregate of the burden attributable to low and high temperatures. Heat and cold effects relate to effects above and below the TMREL. The population-weighted mean TMREL is 25·6°C.
| Total sources | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exposure | 203 | |||||||||||
| Relative risk | 112 | |||||||||||
Table 1:
Total sources used in GBD 2019 estimation
What is new in GBD 2019?
- •Non-optimal temperature is a new risk factor in GBD 2019.
- •Relationships between daily temperature from ERA5 reanalysis dataset and cause-specific mortality (GBD Level 3) were modelled using vital registration data on 58·9 million deaths from eight countries and 15 197 administrative units.
- •The association between daily temperature and cause-specific mortality was modelled using MR-BRT, with 2D splines that allowed these associations to vary by mean temperature zone.
- •Causes were selected if 30% of mean temperature zones had consecutively significant relative risks spanning at least 5% of the temperature range. TMRELs were estimated as the temperatures with the lowest mortality risk for each location and year.
|
Deaths
|
YLLs
|
YLDs
|
DALYs
|
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Number
(millions) |
Rate (per
100 000) |
Number
(millions) |
Rate (per
100 000) |
Number
(millions) |
Rate (per
100 000) |
Number
(millions) |
Rate (per
100 000) |
|||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| Both Sexes | 1·96 (1·71 to 2·21) |
25·7 (22·4 to 29·2) |
37·6 (32·4 to 44·3) |
482·2 (413·7 to 582·3) |
-– |
-– |
37·6 (32·4 to 44·3) |
482·2 (413·7 to 582·3) |
||||
| Females | 0·946 (0·812 to 1·09) |
21·8 (18·7 to 25·1) |
17·0 (14·7 to 20·0) |
411·3 (353·3 to 496·4) |
-– |
-– |
17·0 (14·7 to 20·0) |
411·3 (353·3 to 496·4) |
||||
| Males | 1·01 (0·880 to 1·15) |
30·5 (26·7 to 34·6) |
20·6 (17·5 to 24·6) |
565·8 (482·6 to 676·7) |
-– |
-– |
20·6 (17·5 to 24·6) |
565·8 (482·6 to 676·7) |
||||
| Percentage change 2010-19 | ||||||||||||
| Both Sexes | 12·0% (6·0 to 18·1) |
–15·3% (–19·5 to –10·8) |
1·2% (–8·0 to 9·1) |
–18·8% (–25·0 to –13·2) |
-– |
-– |
1·2% (–8·0 to 9·1) |
–18·8% (–25·0 to –13·2) |
||||
| Females | 11·0% (3·6 to 18·5) |
–16·1% (–21·3 to –10·6) |
–1·0% (–10·2 to 7·9) |
–20·2% (–27·0 to –13·6) |
-– |
-– |
–1·0% (–10·2 to 7·9) |
–20·2% (–27·0 to –13·6) |
||||
| Males | 13·0% (5·2 to 21·3) |
–14·9% (–20·2 to –9·4) |
3·0% (–6·8 to 12·4) |
–17·7% (–24·0 to –11·3) |
-– |
-– |
3·0% (–6·8 to 12·4) |
–17·7% (–24·0 to –11·3) |
||||
| Numbers in parentheses are 95% uncertainty intervals. | ||||||||||||
Table 2:
Attributable global deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs in counts and age-standardised rates for both sexes combined, females, and males, 2019, with percentage change between 2010 and 2019
| Deaths | YLLs | YLDs | DALYs | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 12th | 11th | -- | 13th | ||||||||
| 2010 | 12th | 13th | -- | 14th | ||||||||
| 2019 | 11th | 13th | -- | 14th | ||||||||
Table 3:
Rank among attributable Level 2 risks of global deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs in 1990, 2010, and 2019 for both sexes combined
Figure 1:
Composition of attributable global DALYs by constituent Level 2 causes for both sexes combined, 2019
Figure 2:
Composition of attributable global DALYs by YLLs and YLDs, age group, and sex, 2019
Figure 3:
Age-standardised all-cause SEV by location, both sexes combined, 2019
Figure 4:
Percentage change in all-cause age-standardised SEV by SDI, both sexes combined, 1990–2019
Figure 5:
Percentage of population exposed to risk factor, both sexes combined, 2019
Figure 6:
All-cause mortality relative risk, both sexes combined, 2019