Aleksandr (Sasha) Aravkin, PhD, MS, is Associate Professor in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Adjunct Associate Professor of Health Metrics Sciences, Mathematics, and Statistics, and Director of Mathematical Sciences at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. At IHME, Dr. Aravkin contributes to the strategic direction of the application, uptake, and expansion of mathematical sciences applied to cross-cutting analytic challenges at IHME and seeks out strategic partnerships and opportunities that would enhance IHME’s ability to create innovative science and solve persistent data and analytic challenges using mathematical sciences. He also leads the Mathematical Sciences and Computational Algorithms team at IHME.
Dr. Aravkin’s work focuses on large scale optimization, machine learning and data science. Dr. Aravkin has been working with IHME to develop the Evidence Score model, which requires the development and implementation of entirely new modes and algorithms, as well as emerging methodologies. His work on fusing physics-based and data-driven models allows him to collaborate broadly across campus, as well as with researchers in many universities and in industry.
Dr. Aravkin earned a PhD in Mathematics and MS in Statistics from University of Washington.
IHME was established at the University of Washington in Seattle in 2007. Its mission is to deliver to the world timely, relevant, and scientifically valid evidence to improve health policy and practice.
Bollyky TJ, Castro E, Aravkin AY, et al. Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis. The Lancet. 23 March 2023. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00461-0.
Global Burden of Disease 2021 Health Financing Collaborator Network. Global investments in pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: tracking development assistance and domestic spending on health between 1990 and 2026. The Lancet Global Health. 24 January 2023. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00007-4.
Bender RG, Shen J, Aravkin A, et al. Meningococcal A conjugate vaccine coverage in the meningitis belt of Africa from 2010 to 2021: A modelling study. eClinicalMedicine. 5 January 2023. doi:10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101797.
GBD 2019 Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators. Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. 21 November 2022. doi: 10.1016/
Lescinsky H, Afshin A, Ashbaugh C, et al. Health effects associated with consumption of unprocessed red meat: a Burden of Proof study. Nature Medicine. 10 October 2022. doi: 10.1038/s41591-022-01968-z.
Stanaway JD, Afshin A, Ashbaugh C. Health effects associated with vegetable consumption: a Burden of Proof study. Nature Medicine. 10 October 2022. doi: 10.1038/s41591-022-01970-5.
Zheng P, Afshin A, Biryukov S, et al. The Burden of Proof studies: assessing the evidence of risk. Nature Medicine. 10 October 2022. doi: 10.1038/s41591-022-01973-2.
Razo C, Welgan CA, Johnson CO, et al. Effects of elevated systolic blood pressure on ischemic heart disease: a Burden of Proof study. Nature Medicine. 10 October 2022. 10.1038/s41591-022-01974-1.
Dai X, Gil GF, Reitsma MB, et al. Health effects associated with smoking: a Burden of Proof study. Nature Medicine. 10 October 2022. doi: 10.1038/s41591-022-01978-x.
Global Burden of Disease Long COVID Collaborators. Estimated global proportions of individuals with persistent fatigue, cognitive, and respiratory symptom clusters following symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021. JAMA. 10 October 2022. doi: 10.1001/jama.2022.18931.
Catherine O. Johnson, Alexandra S. Boon-Dooley, Nicole K. DeCleene, et al; Life Expectancy for White, Black, and Hispanic Race/Ethnicity in U.S. States: Trends and Disparities, 1990 to 2019. Ann Intern Med. [Epub 28 June 2022]. doi:10.7326/M21-3956.
Janko MM, Joffe J, Michael D, et al. Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in children under five years of age in 195 countries: A meta-regression analysis. Vaccine. 21 June 2022. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.05.042.
GBD 2019 Human Resources for Health Collaborators. Measuring the availability of human resources for health and its relationship to universal health coverage: estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. The Lancet. 23 May 2022. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00532-3.
COVID-19 Cumulative Infection Collaborators. Estimating global, regional, and national daily and cumulative infections with SARS-CoV-2 through Nov 14, 2021: a statistical analysis. The Lancet. 8 April 2022. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00484-6.
COVID-19 Excess Mortality Collaborators. Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21. The Lancet. 10 March 2022. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02796-3.
COVID-19 Forecasting Team. Variation in the COVID-19 infection–fatality ratio by age, time, and geography during the pre-vaccine era: a systematic analysis. The Lancet. 24 February 2022. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02867-1.
COVID-19 National Preparedness Collaborators. Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021. The Lancet. 1 February 2022. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00172-6.
Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators. Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in 2019: a systematic analysis. The Lancet. 20 January 2022. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02724-0.
Rosettie KL, Joffe JN, Sparks GW, Aravkin A, Chen S, Compton K, Ewald SB, Mathew EB, Michael D, Pedroza Velandia P, Miller-Petrie MB, Stafford L, Zheng P, Weaver MR, Murray CJL. Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in 195 countries: A meta-regression analysis. PLoS ONE. 20 December 2021. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260808.
Burkart KG, Brauer M, Aravkin AY, Godwin WW, Hay SI, He J, Iannucci VC, Larson SL, Lim SS, Liu J, Murray CJL, Zheng P, Zhou M, Stanaway JD. Estimating the cause-specific relative risks of non-optimal temperature on daily mortality: a two-part modelling approach applied to the Global Burden of Disease Study. The Lancet. 19 August 2021. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01700-1.
Causey K, Fullman N, Sorensen RJD, Galles NC, Zheng P, Aravkin A, Danovaro-Holliday MC, Martinez-Piedra R, Sodha SV, Velandia-Gonzalez MP, Gacic-Dobo M, Castro E, He J, Schipp M, Deen A, Hay SI, Lim SS, Mosser JF. Estimating global and regional disruptions to routine childhood vaccine coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: a modelling study. The Lancet. 15 July 2021. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01337-4.
Balaj M, Wade York H, Sripada K, Besnier E, Dahl Vonen H, Aravkin A, Friedman J, Griswold M, Jensen MR, Mohammad T, Mullany EC, Solhaug S, Sorensen R, Stonkute D, Tallaksen A, Whisnant J, Zheng P, Gakidou E, Eikemo TA. Parental education and inequalities in child mortality: a global systematic review and meta-analysis. The Lancet. 10 June 2021. doi: 10.1016/ S0140-6736(21)00787-X.
Dieleman JL. Kaldjian AS, Sahu M, Chen C, Liu A, Chapin A, Woody Scott K, Aravkin S, Zheng P, Mokdad A, Murray CJL, Schulman K, Milstein A. Estimating health care delivery system value for each US state and testing key associations. Health Services Research. 24 May 2021. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.13676.
Zheng P, Barber R, Sorensen R, Murray C, Aravkin A. Trimmed Constrained Mixed Effects Models: Formulations and Algorithms. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics. 4 January 2021. doi: 10.1080/10618600.2020.1868303.
IHME COVID-19 Forecasting Team. Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States. Nature Medicine. 23 October 2020. doi:10.1038/s41591-020-1132-9.
GBD 2019 Risk Factors Collaborators. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. 17 October 2020. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30752-2.
GBD 2019 Universal Health Coverage Collaborators. Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. 27 August 2020. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30750-9.