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COVID-19 projections in the news


April 26, 2023
What to know about XBB.1.16, the 'Arcturus' variant
NBC news

Ali Mokdad, a professor of global health at the University of Washington, said it’s still too early to predict what XBB.1.16 will do. But what he’s seen so far has been reassuring.

“We haven’t seen an increase in hospitalizations, we haven’t seen an increase in any of the indicators that make us worry,” Mokdad said.

March 22, 2023
COVID-19 death rates varied dramatically across US, major analysis finds
ABC News

"We can invest in programs that protect the communities that we see disproportionately affected by the pandemic," said co-lead author Emma Castro, a researcher at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, in the video commentary.
 

March 20, 2023
The pandemic at 3
Politico

Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington have mapped out some scenarios that weigh vaccine uptake, fading protection and antiviral use, among other factors, to project what we can expect across the globe through the end of June.

March 17, 2023
What worked against COVID: Masks, closures and vaccines
Wall Street Journal

Despite these limitations, three independent analyses of excess mortality—by the World Health Organization, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and the Economist—reach similar conclusions. In the first three years of the pandemic, more than 20 million excess deaths occurred globally.

February 21, 2023
Infected in the first wave, they navigated long COVID without a roadmap
Reuters

According to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, in the first two years of the pandemic women were twice as likely as men to develop long COVID, and 15% of all of those affected at three months continued to experience symptoms beyond 12 months.

February 17, 2023
Past COVID infection lowers risk of hospitalisation, death: Study
Al Jazeera

“Omicron has been able to evade past immunity and infect you, but fortunately not necessarily cause severe disease and death,” said Christopher Murray, the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine.

February 14, 2023
Coronavirus Today: Outdoor dining in jeopardy
Los Angeles Times

It’s been awhile since we’ve invoked the term “grim milestone,” but the occasion calls for it: The number of reported coronavirus cases in California now exceeds 12 million.

That figure would have seemed unthinkable early in the pandemic, when we struggled to believe that the COVID-19 forecasting tool from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation was accurate in projecting that the number of cases could reach 1 million.

January 16, 2023
China’s true COVID death toll estimated to be in hundreds of thousands
TIME

The Lunar New Year Holiday, which starts Jan. 21 and involves millions of people traveling to their hometowns, could increase its spread, said Ali Mokdad, a professor at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and chief strategy officer for population health at the University of Washington.  

January 9, 2023
Brasil vai na contramão do mundo e cai intenção de se vacinar contra Covid, diz levantamento
Folha de S. Paulo

Além do ISGlobal, conta com a participação de cientistas da Escola de Medicina Tropical e Higiene de Londres, da Universidade da Cidade de NY (Cuny), em Nova York, e do Instituto de Métricas e Avaliação em Saúde (IHME), da Universidade de Washington, entre outros.

January 6, 2023
How the latest Covid-19 variant is shaping the course of the pandemic
Vox

“We do not expect a major increase in hospitalizations from this variant since it is similar to the previous ones,” said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, in an email.

December 29, 2022
How bad is China’s Covid outbreak? It’s a scientific guessing game.
New York Times

“Either they know something we don’t,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, “or they’re trying to say the worst is already over.”

December 28, 2022
The uncounted: People of color are dying at much higher rates than what COVID data suggests
USA Today

In the last two years, death investigators have relied more heavily on nonspecific or unknown causes of death for people of color. These causes, called “garbage codes” by researchers, are designed to be used as a last resort when an investigator is unable to determine how someone died.

Garbage codes were a “pretty big problem” before the pandemic, said Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, leader of the U.S. Health Disparities team at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Past analyses going back to the 1990s have found these codes have historically been used more among non-white people.

December 16, 2022
New COVID model predicts over 1 million deaths in China
Reuters

China's abrupt lifting of stringent COVID-19 restrictions could result in an explosion of cases and over a million deaths through 2023, according to new projections from the U.S.-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

December 14, 2022
Faulty interpretation underpins claim that COVID shots don’t work
Associated Press

Dr. Christopher Murray, chair of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said waning immunity among vaccinated people is also driving this shift — a factor that the Kaiser report noted as well.

“The reason we’re seeing what we’re seeing is not that vaccines don’t work, it’s that immunity wanes over time,” Murray said, adding that those vaccinated a year ago likely have little protection.

December 11, 2022
‘The situation in the hospitals is grim’: States face brutal virus fallout
Politico

“Most of the population — unfortunately — has forgotten about COVID-19 and moved on. As a result, we’re seeing a rise in cases and a rise in hospitalizations, and that worries me,” said Ali Mokdad, professor of global health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. “Right now with the rise of flu, RSV and Covid, our health professionals are exhausted.”

December 5, 2022
COVID challenges heart function, claim research studies: Key points to know
Times of India

Sarah Wulf Hanson, a health modeller at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle used the data of an earlier study to find how many cases of heart attack and strokes are associated with COVID.

December 2, 2022
Denmark's long COVID patients feel abandoned by pandemic response
Euronews

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates that as of 2021, about 29,940 Danes had developed long COVID lasting at least three months – and as 2022 comes to a close, the toll is likely even higher.

November 28, 2022
China’s ‘zero-COVID’ limits saved lives but no clear exit
Associated Press

The strict policies saved lives, but cannot be sustained, said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle.

“They do not have a plan B,” said Mokdad, adding that China’s approach ultimately will lead to surges in deaths and strain on hospitals. “They cannot lock the country forever.”

November 28, 2022
AP EXPLICA: Protocolos de China contra COVID-19
Associated Press

Sus políticas estrictas salvaron vidas, pero no son sostenibles, indicó Ali Mokdad, profesor de sanimetría en la Universidad de Washington en Seattle.

“No cuentan con un plan B”, indicó Mokdad, añadiendo que la postura de China terminará por provocar un repunte de fallecimientos y una sobrecarga en el sistema de hospitales. “No pueden confinar al país para siempre”.

November 15, 2022
Covid deaths and hospitalizations are falling in the U.S.
NBC News

With that in mind, data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a research center within the University of Washington, suggest that Covid hospitalizations and deaths could tick up again in "mid-January at the earliest," said Gupta, a medical analyst for NBC News and MSNBC.

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