The burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in Croatia in 2019

Abstract

Aim

To deliver the most wide-ranging set of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) burden estimates for Croatia to date.

Methods

A complex modeling approach with five broad modeling components was used to estimate the disease burden for 12 main infectious syndromes and one residual group, 23 pathogenic bacteria, and 88 bug–drug combinations. This was represented by two relevant counterfactual scenarios: deaths/disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) that are attributable to AMR considering a situation where drug-resistant infections are substituted with sensitive ones, and deaths/DALYs associated with AMR considering a scenario where people with drug-resistant infections would instead present without any infection. 

The 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were based on 1000 posterior draws in each modeling step, reported at the 2.5% and 97.5% of the draws’ distribution, while out-of-sample predictive validation was pursued for all the models.

Results

The total burden associated with AMR in Croatia was 2546 (95% UI 1558–3803) deaths and 46 958 (28,033–71,628) DALYs, while the attributable burden was 614 (365–943) deaths and 11 321 (6,544–17,809) DALYs. The highest number of deaths was established for bloodstream infections, followed by peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections and infections of the urinary tract. 

Five leading pathogenic bacterial agents were responsible for 1808 deaths associated with resistance: Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Acinetobacter baumannii, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (ordered by the number of deaths). Trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole-resistant E coli and methicillin-resistant S. aureus were dominant pathogen-drug combinations in regard to mortality associated with and attributable to AMR, respectively.

Conclusion

We showed that AMR represented a substantial public health concern in Croatia, which reflects global trends; hence, our detailed country-level findings may fast-track the implementation of multipronged strategies tailored in accordance with leading pathogens and pathogen-drug combinations.