IHME's COVID-19 projections were developed in response to requests from the University of Washington School of Medicine and other US hospital systems and state governments working to determine when COVID-19 would overwhelm their ability to care for patients. The forecasts show demand for hospital services, daily and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19, rates of infection and testing, and the impact of social distancing and mask use.
The results are shown by country and state (for select locations), with periodic updates detailed here alongside weekly policy briefings for each location. Our estimates show both reported deaths, which is the number of deaths officially reported as COVID-19, and excess deaths related to COVID-19, which is all deaths estimated as attributed to COVID-19, including unreported deaths. To learn more about our methods, please see our special analysis. Please find additional COVID-19 resources here and contact us with any questions.