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“We do not expect a major increase in hospitalizations from this variant since it is similar to the previous ones,” said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, in an email.
“Either they know something we don’t,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, “or they’re trying to say the worst is already over.”
In the last two years, death investigators have relied more heavily on nonspecific or unknown causes of death for people of color. These causes, called “garbage codes” by researchers, are designed to be used as a last resort when an investigator is unable to determine how someone died. Garbage codes were a “pretty big problem” before the pandemic, said Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, leader of the U.S. Health Disparities team at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Past analyses going back to the 1990s have found these codes have historically been used more among non-white people.
Chris Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and professor and chair of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington, told Newsweek: "The average interpretation of the data suggests that consuming meat may increase your risk of colon cancer, heart disease, [and] ischemic stroke."
China's abrupt lifting of stringent COVID-19 restrictions could result in an explosion of cases and over a million deaths through 2023, according to new projections from the U.S.-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
Dr. Christopher Murray, chair of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said waning immunity among vaccinated people is also driving this shift — a factor that the Kaiser report noted as well. “The reason we’re seeing what we’re seeing is not that vaccines don’t work, it’s that immunity wanes over time,” Murray said, adding that those vaccinated a year ago likely have little protection.
“Most of the population — unfortunately — has forgotten about COVID-19 and moved on. As a result, we’re seeing a rise in cases and a rise in hospitalizations, and that worries me,” said Ali Mokdad, professor of global health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. “Right now with the rise of flu, RSV and Covid, our health professionals are exhausted.”
Sarah Wulf Hanson, a health modeller at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle used the data of an earlier study to find how many cases of heart attack and strokes are associated with COVID.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates that as of 2021, about 29,940 Danes had developed long COVID lasting at least three months – and as 2022 comes to a close, the toll is likely even higher.
The strict policies saved lives, but cannot be sustained, said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle. “They do not have a plan B,” said Mokdad, adding that China’s approach ultimately will lead to surges in deaths and strain on hospitals. “They cannot lock the country forever.”
Sus políticas estrictas salvaron vidas, pero no son sostenibles, indicó Ali Mokdad, profesor de sanimetría en la Universidad de Washington en Seattle. “No cuentan con un plan B”, indicó Mokdad, añadiendo que la postura de China terminará por provocar un repunte de fallecimientos y una sobrecarga en el sistema de hospitales. “No pueden confinar al país para siempre”.
“These new data for the first time reveal the full extent of the global public health challenge posed by bacterial infections,” says Christopher Murray, who is a study co-author and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine, in a press release. “It is of utmost importance to put these results on the radar of global health initiatives so that a deeper dive into these deadly pathogens can be conducted and proper investments are made to slash the number of deaths and infections.”
With that in mind, data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a research center within the University of Washington, suggest that Covid hospitalizations and deaths could tick up again in "mid-January at the earliest," said Gupta, a medical analyst for NBC News and MSNBC.
Meanwhile Seattle’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation sees population peaking at roughly 9.7 billion in 2064, but dropping down to 8.8 billion, possibly less, by century’s end.
The US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimated in a 2020 study that the global population would max out by 2064, without ever reaching 10 billion, and decline to 8.8 billion by 2100. “We are lower than them (the UN) and I think we have a good reason,” lead author of the IHME study, Stein Emil Vollset, told AFP.