IHME in the news

China's abrupt lifting of stringent COVID-19 restrictions could result in an explosion of cases and over a million deaths through 2023, according to new projections from the U.S.-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

Dr. Christopher Murray, chair of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said waning immunity among vaccinated people is also driving this shift — a factor that the Kaiser report noted as well. “The reason we’re seeing what we’re seeing is not that vaccines don’t work, it’s that immunity wanes over time,” Murray said, adding that those vaccinated a year ago likely have little protection.

“Most of the population — unfortunately — has forgotten about COVID-19 and moved on. As a result, we’re seeing a rise in cases and a rise in hospitalizations, and that worries me,” said Ali Mokdad, professor of global health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. “Right now with the rise of flu, RSV and Covid, our health professionals are exhausted.”

Sarah Wulf Hanson, a health modeller at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle used the data of an earlier study to find how many cases of heart attack and strokes are associated with COVID.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates that as of 2021, about 29,940 Danes had developed long COVID lasting at least three months – and as 2022 comes to a close, the toll is likely even higher.

Sus políticas estrictas salvaron vidas, pero no son sostenibles, indicó Ali Mokdad, profesor de sanimetría en la Universidad de Washington en Seattle. “No cuentan con un plan B”, indicó Mokdad, añadiendo que la postura de China terminará por provocar un repunte de fallecimientos y una sobrecarga en el sistema de hospitales. “No pueden confinar al país para siempre”.

The strict policies saved lives, but cannot be sustained, said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle. “They do not have a plan B,” said Mokdad, adding that China’s approach ultimately will lead to surges in deaths and strain on hospitals. “They cannot lock the country forever.”

“These new data for the first time reveal the full extent of the global public health challenge posed by bacterial infections,” says Christopher Murray, who is a study co-author and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine, in a press release. “It is of utmost importance to put these results on the radar of global health initiatives so that a deeper dive into these deadly pathogens can be conducted and proper investments are made to slash the number of deaths and infections.”

With that in mind, data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a research center within the University of Washington, suggest that Covid hospitalizations and deaths could tick up again in "mid-January at the earliest," said Gupta, a medical analyst for NBC News and MSNBC.

Meanwhile Seattle’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation sees population peaking at roughly 9.7 billion in 2064, but dropping down to 8.8 billion, possibly less, by century’s end.

The US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimated in a 2020 study that the global population would max out by 2064, without ever reaching 10 billion, and decline to 8.8 billion by 2100. “We are lower than them (the UN) and I think we have a good reason,” lead author of the IHME study, Stein Emil Vollset, told AFP.

España es actualmente el cuarto país con la mayor esperanza de vida, pero según el Institute for ­Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) de la Universidad de Washington, como recoge el informe de JLL, podría convertirse en el país más longevo del mundo en 2040, superando a Japón, Suiza y Singapur, al llegar a un promedio de 85,8 años.

The analysis of the state of air quality and related health impacts in Africa was produced by the State of Global Air initiative, which is a collaboration between the United States-based Health Effects Institute, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s Global Burden of Disease project.

A recent study by the WHO and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation concluded that at least 17 million people across 53 countries in Europe had long Covid during 2020 and 2021, and it called for governments to find “solutions to this crisis”.

Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimate more than 300,000 deaths from COVID-19 could occur this fall and winter, including deaths that may go unreported, totaling more than 1.3 million deaths by February.