Supplement to the European Health Report 2021: Projections for a selection of indicators for health-related Sustainable Development Goals

Published February 24, 2022

This Supplement complements Chapter 2 of the European Health Report 2021 which assesses whether the WHO European Region is on track towards reaching the health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), by presenting projections until 2030 for different scenarios for 12 SDG indicators. The projections were developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). WHO technical units have reviewed the interpretation of the projections and provided further information on key interventions and frameworks in the Region. Making projections and undertaking forecasting exercises have become an instrumental part of health system preparedness and resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. As the effects of the pandemic on health systems and population health are not yet fully understood, other factors known to be important drivers for health – such as income, fertility and education – have been used to estimate the scenarios presented in this Supplement.

The 12 SDG indicators in the Supplement include:

3.1.1. maternal mortality ratio
3.2.1 under-5 mortality
3.3.1 HIV incidence
3.3.2 tuberculosis incidence
3.4.1 non-communicable disease mortality
3.4.2 suicide mortality
3.5.2 alcohol consumption
3.9.1 air pollution
3.a.1 smoking
3.b.1 vaccination coverage
3.c.1 health worker density
5.2.1 intimate partner violence

About the European Health Report

The European Health Report is produced every three years as a flagship publication by the WHO Regional Office for Europe. The aims of the 2021 edition are to provide insight into regional progress towards the health-related SDGs and to examine available data on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on population health, thereby focusing on health inequalities and how the pandemic is affecting these. In addition, the report describes how the Regional Office, through implementation of the European Programme of Work 2020–2025, aims to support Member States in tackling the major challenges in the Region and building back better after the pandemic. Access the European Health Report 2021 via the WHO Regional Office for Europe website here.

European Health Report 2021 GBD methods appendix

Additional detail on the retrospective data sources and methods (2000-2020) used to estimate each SDG indicator can be accessed via the Download links below.


Supplement to the European Health Report 2021: Projections for a selection of indicators for health-related Sustainable Development Goals. Copenhagen: WHO Regional Office for Europe; 2022. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO.

Supporting documents

GBD 2019 methods: cancer
(538.83 KB)
GBD 2020 methods: alcohol
(608.52 KB)
GBD 2020 methods: ambient particulate matter pollution
(2.15 MB)
GBD 2020 methods: cardiovascular diseases
(120.81 KB)
GBD 2020 methods: chronic respiratory diseases
(645.25 KB)
GBD 2020 methods: diabetes mellitus
(1.14 MB)
GBD 2020 methods: HIV/AIDS
(1.17 MB)
GBD 2020 methods: household air pollution
(518.46 KB)
GBD 2020 methods: injuries including self-harm
(2.27 MB)
GBD 2020 methods: intimate partner violence
(582.47 KB)
GBD 2020 methods: maternal disorders
(659.74 KB)
GBD 2020 methods: smoking
(1.73 MB)
GBD 2020 methods: tuberculosis
(1.29 MB)
Health worker density methods
(4.07 MB)