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2015 Roux Prize Winner
Dr. Agnes Binagwaho, Former Minister of Health of Rwanda, used Global Burden of Disease data and evidence from the Ministry’s own data-gathering efforts to ensure the country’s limited resources are saving the most lives and reducing suffering.
HIV Worldwide 1990-2013 Visualization
View estimated trends in HIV/AIDS death, incidence, and prevalence worldwide and by country for 1990 to 2013.
Disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease 2013 study
The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study assesses health losses from diseases, injuries, and risk factors using disability-adjusted life-years, which need a set of disability weights to quantify health levels associated with nonfatal outcomes. The objective of this study was to estimate disability weights for the GBD 2013 study.
Methods for estimating the global burden of cerebrovascular diseases
Abstract The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is a longstanding effort to report consistent and comprehensive measures of disease burden for the world. In this paper, we describe the methods used to estimate the global burden of stroke for the GBD 2013 study. Pathologic subtypes of stroke are modeled separately for two mutually exclusive and exhaustive categories: (1) ischemic stroke and (2) hemorrhagic and other non-ischemic strokes. Acute and chronic strokes are estimated separately. The GBD 2013 study has incorporated large amounts of new data on stroke death rates, incidence, and case fatality. Disease modeling methods have been updated to better integrate mortality and incidence data. Future efforts will focus on incorporating data on the regional variation in severity of disability. Stroke remains a new area for disease modeling. A better understanding of stroke incidence, mortality, and severity, and how it varies among countries, can help guide priority setting and improve health policy related to this important condition.
Projected growth of the adult congenital heart disease population in the United States to 2050: an integrative systems modeling approach
Mortality for children with congenital heart disease (CHD) has declined with improved surgical techniques and neonatal screening; however, as these patients live longer, accurate estimates of the prevalence of adults with CHD are lacking.
Measuring causes of death in populations: a new metric that corrects cause-specific mortality fractions for chance
Verbal autopsy is gaining increasing acceptance as a method for determining the underlying cause of death when the cause of death given on death certificates is unavailable or unreliable, and there are now a number of alternative approaches for mapping from verbal autopsy interviews to the underlying cause of death. For public health applications, the population-level aggregates of the underlying causes are of primary interest, expressed as the cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) for a mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive cause list. Although it allows for relative comparisons of alternative methods, CSMF Accuracy provides misleading numbers in absolute terms, because even random allocation of underlying causes yields relatively high CSMF accuracy. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop and test a measure of CSMF that corrects this problem.
Validation of a new predictive risk model: measuring the impact of the major modifiable risks of death for patients and populations
Modifiable risks account for a large fraction of disease and death, but clinicians and patients lack tools to identify high-risk populations or compare the possible benefit of different interventions.
Alliance Management Response: 2014 Full Country Evaluations Report
This document, authored by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, outlines the Alliance's management response to the findings and recommendations of the 2014 Dissemination Report for the Full Country Evaluations. It details the Alliance response to each finding and indicates responsible parties and expected timing of relevant actions.
Estimates of global and regional premature cardiovascular mortality in 2025
United Nations member states have agreed to reduce premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality 25% by 2025. Global CVD risk factor targets have been recommended. We produced estimates to show how selected risk factor reduction would affect CVD mortality for different regions and countries.
Changes in health in England, with analysis by English regions and areas of deprivation, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
We use the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 data on mortality and causes of death, and disease and injury incidence and prevalence to analyze the burden of disease and injury in England as a whole, in English regions, and within each English region by deprivation quintile. We also assess disease and injury burden in England attributable to potentially preventable risk factors. England and the English regions are compared with the remaining constituent countries of the UK and with comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond.
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioral, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.
2014 Dissemination Report
This report details findings from the 2014 evaluation period of the Gavi Full Country Evaluations (FCE) project in Bangladesh, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia. The FCE are three-year prospective studies that aim to understand and quantify the barriers to and drivers of immunization program performance, with emphasis on the contribution of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.
Human Papillomavirus Vaccine: Lessons Learned from the 2014 Gavi Full Country Evaluations
This brief presents lessons learned from human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine demonstration in Mozambique and preparation for HPV national introduction in Uganda during the 2014 period of the Gavi Full Country Evaluations (FCE).
Bangladesh: Findings from the 2014 Gavi Full Country Evaluations
This brief presents findings for Bangladesh from the 2014 Gavi Full Country Evaluations (FCE) Annual Dissemination Report. It reflects content from the 2014 Annual Dissemination Report.
Mozambique: Findings from the 2014 Gavi Full Country Evaluations
This brief presents findings for Mozambique from the 2014 Gavi Full Country Evaluations (FCE) Annual Dissemination Report. It reflects content from the 2014 Annual Dissemination Report.
Uganda: Findings from the 2014 Gavi Full Country Evaluations
This brief presents findings for Uganda from the 2014 Gavi Full Country Evaluations (FCE) Annual Dissemination Report. It reflects content from the 2014 Annual Dissemination Report.
Zambia: Findings from the 2014 Gavi Full Country Evaluations
This brief presents findings for Zambia from the 2014 Gavi Full Country Evaluations (FCE) Annual Dissemination Report. It reflects content from the 2014 Annual Dissemination Report.
Benchmarking health system performance across states in Nigeria: a systematic analysis of levels and trends in key maternal and child health interventions and outcomes, 2000–2013
Nigeria has made notable gains in improving childhood survival but the country still accounts for a large portion of the world’s overall disease burden, particularly among women and children. To date, no systematic analyses have comprehensively assessed trends for health outcomes and interventions across states in Nigeria.
The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015
Since the year 2000, a concerted campaign against malaria has led to unprecedented levels of intervention coverage across sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the effect of this control effort is vital to inform future control planning.
Understanding the relationships between non-communicable diseases, unhealthy lifestyles, and country wealth
The amount of international aid given to address non-communicable diseases is minimal. Most of it is directed to wealthier countries and focuses on the prevention of unhealthy lifestyles. Explanations for the current direction of non-communicable disease aid include that these are diseases of affluence that benefit from substantial research and development into their treatment in high-income countries and are better addressed through domestic tax and policy measures to reduce risk factor prevalence than through aid programs. This study assessed these justifications.
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition
The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardized estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to socio-demographic development.