Health forecasting

We create forecasts and custom future scenarios to study the impact of new policies, technologies, or interventions on health outcomes. Our forecasts use estimates of diseases, injuries, risk factors, sociodemographic indicators, and other drivers of health from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD).

9.73 billion people are expected to be alive at the projected population peak in 2064.
8.79 billion people are expected to be alive as the world’s population declines in 2100.
2.37 billion people older than 65 years and 1.7 billion younger than 20 years are forecasted to be alive in 2100.
8.6 years will be added to the global life expectancy for men and 7.4 years for women by 2100.

Interactive data visuals

Interactive Data Visual

Population Forecasting

Use this dynamic tool to explore patterns in population trends from 2017 to 2100. The interactive tool reveals changes in population structures and fertility rate, based on progress toward SDG pace of female educational attainment and access to contraception.

Interactive Data Visual

COVID-19 projections

Explore forecasts of demand for hospital services, reported and excess deaths due to COVID-19, rates of infection and testing, and the impact of social distancing and mask use.

Interactive Data Visual

GBD Foresight Visualization

Analyze forecasts and better and worse scenarios from 2017 to 2040 for both causes of death and risks, as measured by years of life lost (YLLs), and total deaths.

Datasets in our catalog

Visit the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) to download our estimates and data sources for health forecasting.


Scientific Publication

Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study


Health topic