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Scientific publications


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Read the research on low back pain.
May 22, 2023
Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990–2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050
Research Article

Low back pain remains the leading cause of disability globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide.

Read the research on air pollution in North Africa and the Middle East.
May 12, 2023
Effect of air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in North Africa and the Middle East
Research Article

We found that if air pollution had been lowered to the theoretical minimum risk exposure levels for 2019, then the average life expectancy would have been 1·6 years higher.

Read the article on chronic respiratory diseases.
April 25, 2023
Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

We estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of chronic respiratory diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease, and pulmonary sarcoidosis.

Read the research on health spending for multiple chronic conditions.
April 4, 2023
Estimating health spending associated with chronic multimorbidity in 2018: An observational study among adults in the United States
Research Article

This study explores health spending in the US on multiple chronic conditions. We look at different disease combinations and how spending differs for individuals with multiple conditions compared to a single disease.

Read the research on anxiety in Australia.
April 1, 2023
Grading disorder severity and averted burden by access to treatment within the GBD framework: a case study with anxiety disorders
Research Article

 We estimated treatment use among respondents with anxiety disorder in the 1997 Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing (NSMHWB).

Read the research on pneumonia in China.
March 28, 2023
Infection and co-infection patterns of community-acquired pneumonia in patients of different ages in China from 2009 to 2020: a national surveillance study
Research Article

We aimed to explore the causal and epidemiological characteristics by age, to better describe patterns of community-acquired pneumonia and their association with severe disease.

Read the research on COVID resiliency in the US.
March 23, 2023
Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis
Research Article

The United States struggled in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, but not all states struggled equally. Identifying the factors associated with cross-state variation in infection and mortality rates could help to improve responses to this and future pandemics.

Read the research on COVID pandemic forecasting.
March 8, 2023
Forecasting the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic into 2023 under plausible variant and intervention scenarios: a global modelling study
Research Article

This paper samples across a range of potential variant-level characteristics to provide global forecasts of infections, hospitalisations, and deaths in the face of ongoing Omicron-related transmission and waning levels of past immunity and evaluates a range of interventions that may diminish the impact of future waves. 

Read the research on dementia prevalence.
March 2, 2023
The prevalence, correlation, and co-occurrence of neuropathology in old age: harmonisation of 12 measures across six community-based autopsy studies of dementia
Research Article

 We aimed to harmonise neuropathology measures across studies and assess the prevalence, correlation, and co-occurrence of neuropathologies in the ageing population.

Read the research on community-based interventions for diabetes in Minnesota.
February 27, 2023
Assessing the impact of community-based interventions on hypertension and diabetes management in three Minnesota communities: findings from the prospective evaluation of US HealthRise programs
Research Article

Community-based health interventions are increasingly viewed as models of care that can bridge healthcare gaps experienced by underserved communities in the United States (US). With this study, we sought to assess the impact of such interventions, as implemented through the US HealthRise program, on hypertension and diabetes among underserved communities in Hennepin, Ramsey, and Rice Counties, Minnesota.

Read the research on protection against COVID re-infection.
February 16, 2023
Past SARS-CoV-2 infection protection against re-infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Research Article

We aimed to systematically synthesize studies to estimate protection from past infection by variant, and where data allow, by time since infection.

Read the research on cancer in North Africa and the Middle East.
February 10, 2023
Burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in North Africa and Middle East countries, 1990 to 2019: Results from the GBD study 2019
Research Article

Researchers found that tobacco use is still a leading cause of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in the region.

Read the research on infant and child death in Iran.
February 6, 2023
Neonate, infant, and child mortality by cause in provinces of Iran: An analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019
Research Article

All provinces achieved the Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of neonatal mortality less than 12 and child mortality less than 25 per 1000 live births. However, disparities still exist across provinces, specifically in low-SDI provinces.

Read the research on maternal deaths in Iran.
February 6, 2023
Levels and trends of maternal mortality and morbidity by cause in North Africa and Middle East, 1990 to 2019: An analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019
Research Article

Maternal mortality has significantly declined in the region since 1990 and only five countries (Afghanistan, Sudan, Yemen, Morocco, and Algeria) out of 21 nations didn’t achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of 70 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2019.

January 24, 2023
Global investments in pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: tracking development assistance and domestic spending on health between 1990 and 2026
Research Article

We aimed to provide a comparative assessment of global health spending at the onset of the pandemic; characterise the amount of development assistance for pandemic preparedness and response disbursed in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic; and examine expectations for future health spending and put into context the expected need for investment in pandemic preparedness.

Read the research on substance use in South America.
January 24, 2023
Burden of disease due to amphetamines, cannabis, cocaine, and opioid use disorders in South America, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

This study investigated the burden of disease attributable to amphetamine use disorder, cannabis use disorder (CAD), cocaine use disorder, and opioid use disorder (OUD) in South America from 1990 to 2019, on the basis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

Read the research on disease burden in Pakistan.
January 18, 2023
The state of health in Pakistan and its provinces and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

Comparison of health indicators since 1990 provides valuable insights about Pakistan's ability to strengthen its health-care system, reduce inequalities, improve female and child health outcomes, achieve universal health coverage, and meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Read the research on meningitis vaccine coverage in Africa.
January 5, 2023
Meningococcal A conjugate vaccine coverage in the meningitis belt of Africa from 2010 to 2021: A modelling study
Research Article

These estimates highlight where gaps in immunization remain and emphasize the need for broader efforts to strengthen routine immunization systems.

Read the research on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.
December 19, 2022
Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2018
Research Article

These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Read the research on cardiovascular disease.
December 12, 2022
The global burden of cardiovascular diseases and risk: A compass for future health
Research Article

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study has tracked trends in death and disability since 1990 and has provided an updated perspective on the status of cardiovascular health globally, regionally, and nationally.

Read the research on health financing in India.
December 12, 2022
Tracking development assistance for health from India to low- and middle-income countries, 2009–2020
Research Article

 India’s DAH allocation strategy prioritizes contributions toward neighboring countries in the South Asia region in several health focus areas.

Read the research on disease burden in Spain.
December 7, 2022
A GBD 2019 study of health and Sustainable Development Goal gains and forecasts to 2030 in Spain
Research Article

Here, we detail the updated Spain 1990–2019 burden of disease estimates and project certain metrics up to 2030.

Read the research on causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children.
December 6, 2022
The overlapping burden of the three leading causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children
Research Article

We synthesise subnational estimates of the burden of lower respiratory infections, diarrhoea, and malaria in children under-5 from 2000 to 2017 for 43 sub-Saharan countries.

Read the research on tuberculosis in Cambodia.
December 3, 2022
Progress towards the 2020 milestones of the end TB strategy in Cambodia: estimates of age and sex specific TB incidence and mortality from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

We aimed to examine the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal TB burden in Cambodia from 1990 to 2019, assessing progress towards the WHO End TB interim milestones, which aim to reduce TB incidence rate by 20% and TB deaths by 35% from 2015 to 2020.

Read the research on child mortality in North Africa and the Middle East.
December 1, 2022
Neonate, infant, and child mortality in North Africa and Middle East by cause: An analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Research Article

We report the number as well as mortality rates for neonates, infants, and children by cause across 21 countries in the region since 1990.

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